I am short the EU since 1.1370 posted here prior in the trading thread. I see the max. low for EURUSD at 1.0700/1.0725 now. Next target should be around 1.0875 which should be pretty sure reached in this downtrend I think. This would be the new minimum target instead of the older 1.1000 target for EU. For the DXY it means upside potential to 105.50/106.00 area. Until 26th of May there should be strong downtrend for EU before it could get a bit more volatile with adverse moves based on the seasonal aspects. Ideally the 1.0900 level for EU is reached until 26th of May. That is my opinion.
I also expect to be more trade deals announced by Trump in the next days so that should help for a stronger US Dollar.
Actually the EURUSD at 1.1188, ideally it makes a new low until end of Friday this week with prints below 1.1065. If not early next week should be the path to follow I am assuming.
More announcements,. Yes he's good with that. Good for ratings. More signed deals - make that any signed deals? That has yet to happen.
What you said sounds logical, however except for a day here and day there the Euro keeps rising. I am dubious of the US dollar gaining any real traction especially since the 10 year rate keeps rising.
Here you see the Commercials are very bullish on DXY or a stronger US Dollar. The last recent upmoves should let DXY rise to minimum 103.70 around or up to 106 level depending on how the Commercials (blue line) react in the COT indicator. Usually triggered very successfully the larger moves in the US Dollar. That is why I am also so bearish for the EURUSD. (The red line are retailers as contra indicator in the chart.) If you look the T-Bonds you get also to the conclusion the US Dollar or DXY should be stronger.