If one has a look at the weekly Silver chart based on SLV, there are some very interesting developments occurring. It is quite possible that a major low was produced in the end of June from the FND of the July contract. Silver is now showing show some very good upside potential and I am now purely focusing my position trades on Silver as a result. We could see some very explosive upside moves over the coming weeks/months in silver vs. the price performance of gold. Gold still appears to have some suppressive characteristics due to central bank selling whereas there is very little holdings of silver held by the world's central banks. The industrial demand cycles for silver also appear to be starting up again which has been the case in every odd year since the bull market began in 2001. Ultimately, I'm looking for cash silver to hit $22-28/oz. before the 2nd Qtr. of '08. (IMVHO)
here is someone who agrees with you ( from the kitco website ) www.kitco.com/ind/kilbach/jul132007.html personally ... I would love to see silver fly ... but I am well aware how it can drop in a flash even as it makes its way higher ... esp if it gets overbought compared to gold ( just take a look at any chart of silver the last two yrs ) hiyo silver and away !
So far the action in Silver remains uninspiring but nonetheless there is some positive price action at hand. Silver is clearly trading within a small uptrend channel and prices should continue upward in the near future. There are two major areas of overhead resistance however. The 1st is right at the 40/50EMA which is about 13.20 or so. Prices have been rejected there so far but if SIU7 can decisively close over this level, then the intermediate picture will look much better for silver moving forward. The 2nd resistance area is represented by the downtrend resistance line from the March high which is right around 13.60. A move over this zone would indicate much higher prices in the months ahead...
Clean break and hold over 13.20 today. As long as SIU7 holds 13.135 on a closing basis, the new intermediate trend will continue to stay UP...
Once silver breaks over its downtrend resistance, I would anticipate a very sharp move up to 14. Just as gold and the XAU/HUI moved up very quickly once overhead resistance was broken, I expect a similar but more powerful advance with Silver...
Realist, what kind of things do you look for if you want to try and predict the prices of Silver from the fundamental standpoint? Oil prices? Supply/Demand? etc... I have read before that Silver is almost starting to run out, so right now Im thinking of loading up on a few Silver futures especialy that we are in the summer and it appears that silver flies in the summer.
there is a site called -silveraxis- that does discuss silver from fundamental side or sometimes provides links to such
I take positions in SI based mostly on the present technical situation. The fundamentals appear to be solid due to the worldwide demand for all metals but there is a whole plethora of positive fundamental reasons calling for higher Silver prices. Focusing on the technicals keeps risk in check (ie, I am not always long silver metal). Silver's advance will likely be a gradual event though and not just positive through the Summertime. It's likely better to pick a spot to enter, stick with it, roll it over when needed and hold tight until the new uptrend ends. We're just barely getting started here so patience will be required...
Thats the thing, picking the right spot to enter is the difference between winning and losing in the futures market, especially if you want short term plays. I'l try to hold on to my patience, but ofcoarse your comments and feedbacks on this thread will always be crucial, so keep posting brother.....