Jul 2023 FOMC Fed Fund Rate Adjustment?

They’re fiddlin’ with the thermostat…

 

My vote:+½. Note the recent +½ point move by the ECB and the surprisingly strong jobs report. Methinks that inflation is still out of control, and the Fed’s recent hikes haven’t made a difference. They’ll step a little harder on the brake, and really try to get a leash on this.

 

Too early to even take a guess, as something else could break between now and then.

 

July 25-26th is next FOMC meeting.

And CME FedWatchTool currently shows 91.8% of a 25 bps likely increase.

 

2 year is the highest in 16 years today, will go higher.

hold my thought on zt zn trades.

 

Is it that soon? I thought that the next decision will be made in September.

See the asterisks * in the following calendar? I thought rate hikes only in meetings with economic projections.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

EDIT: ok I’m wrong I will change to July.

 

CME FEDWatchTool page keeps me straight with time counter till next meeting (top right) :-
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

Those are just the meetings where they update the dot-plots.