Do you guys think that some of the OTM put options on commodities ETFs (e.g. USO) are overvalued? It is a norm to observe pronounced volatility skew on stock put options (more OTM = higher IV) due to demand for protection against black swan fat-tail events. But for commodities ETF??? if anything with commodities, the risk-aversion of most trader is against the upside risk. Selling OTM puts on commodities seemed to provide a decent risk/reward proposition. Am I missing something here?
You should stick to writing puts on something you are willing to own but at a lower price and would like to be compensated for waiting. Why not write puts on SPY instead? pick a point you feel comfortable taking a position in SPY and write puts on that.
NYSE: USO. Let's take June put chain: 31 strike: Imp Vol = 45.76 30 strike: Imp Vol = 47.08 29 strike: Imp Vol = 47.73 28 strike: Imp Vol = 48.64 27 strike: Imp Vol = 50.10 26 strike: Imp Vol = 50.52 Imp Vol provided by optionxpress. The skew is quite pronounced.