Hi all Hoping the creative amongst you can help me set up a screen - potential for reward if any solutions are particularly ingenious. We are event traders. Ideally we are presented with binary outcomes (either stock goes to x or y). Historically, the market has been quite poor at pricing these situations over various instuments, though probability theory has equipped us relatively well to tackle them. So what i need is any solution to <b> any </b> of the issues below: 1. The stock is receiving more news flow than normal (perhaps increased google search volumes) 2. The stock is "trending" much more than normal (increased social activity) 3. The stock is rumoured to be entering a corporate action (perhaps included on various target/acquirer lists) Or any other way of determining a likely binary/discrete situation. regards, Seb
You're referring to two scenarios; risk-arb and drug trials. Now please tell us (broad strokes) how the mkt is poor in pricing these outcomes.
newwurldmm that corp action screen is really quite poor, (CACX), really only returns M&A transactions... MARB is more effective for that. I'm more interested in a clever way of using free data (Google trends, twitter, news) as I'm not a code-head... reward is £50-£300 depending on how useful the solution is. i think that's fair, i dont want to overpromise and then have someone underdeliver on me
my cacx screen has too much info: dividends, ipos, etc. it's all filterable. but you are right, the MARB is more useful with market data, etc.