Just read this thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=236208 I am fascinated by traders with a STEM background (a college degree in science, technology, engineering or mathematics) who decide to go the discretionary route rather than the systematic route. What is it about the "gut-feel" approach to trading that is more appealing than the analytical problem-solving approach they learned in college?
You may be setting up a straw man by implying that 'analytical problem solving' does not belong in the realm of discretionary trading. It most certainly does. Intuition often carries a negative connotation. But it is simply a mechanism. The problem solving in this case then becomes a matter of first identifying the right heuristics and then practicing how to apply them in real time. Intuition without such research and practice can lead to disaster as the mechanism is simply executing fear/greed biases. But once the right heuristics are in place, there are few things as powerful as discretionary decision making based on a platform of systematic analyses. http://www.ted.com/talks/shyam_sankar_the_rise_of_human_computer_cooperation
Thanks for the link. So is it your position that combining discretionary and systematic is superior to either one alone?
Yes. A couple of books that contain real world examples: http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-No...4867&sr=8-1&keywords=the+signal+and+the+noise http://www.amazon.com/Sources-Power...TF8&qid=1405024780&sr=8-2&keywords=gary+klein
You might also wish to check out.... http://www.amazon.com/Risk-Savvy-Make-Good-Decisions/dp/0670025658 This one is an OK read and focuses mainly on the miss representation of stats and how many dont understand them....particulalr interesting regards the health care industry. He has a few similar books on intuition. Personally - trust the gut after plenty of experience.....then try and quantify that.
Being a discretionary trader is really the following exercise: Input a lot of information into your brain. Determine what's noise and what's real. Come to an actionable conclusion. Execute on that conclusion. If you are a good trader, you will have ability to process the incoming information to create the right conclusions. The execution is easy. If you are a bad trader, you will generate the wrong conclusions. The processing of the information can be called "intuition" or "gut." Having an analytical/spatially oriented mind will help in processing the information.
a lot of your post may just involve time in front of screen.how many times did you watch this movie as far as good/bad trader and processing, repetitive likely outcomes
Experience will help you develop the right conclusions. An analytical mind will help. A formal education in the subject matter will help as well. Character helps a lot too. I've seen it countless times in trading but also in other business endeavors (senior management) as well.