Not asking for a crystal ball or tomorrows newspaper, is there any stock option software that shows you stocks the Options Market expects to make a big move? On Chiptole and Netflix, the Options Market Makers were really close to the money, CMG Calls were $30 on the weekly an Netflix was $15, CMG blew past the the $30 premium but I think the Market Makers will reign in the price so they break-even or make money. The Big Hedge Funds have software that predict various outcomes, which Option Software do you think gives us a better playing field? Sorry, I hope this make's sense, it's amazing to see how incredible the Options Market Makers were on CMG and NFLX and Apple, Apple was priced accordingly.
Since earnings was early in the week, the straddle still had time value, which makes it less reliable as an estimator of earnings volatility. You should instead calculate the "implied jump" for a more accurate estimate. Then analyze this against the historical implied jumps and the resulting moves, to determine your position. You can find the math in Sinclair (Volatility Trading).