Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices amid OPEC price war

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Banjo, Oct 4, 2015.

  1. Banjo

    Banjo

  2. Perhaps sell the CAD. It's at 0.75800 now and just recently bounced back above 0.75000. This latest news could take it down to 0.74000




    :)
     
  3. Interesting what a Day does in the Oil World!

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oil-output-rises-to-post-soviet-high-in-september-1443777432

    "
    By
    GEORGI KANTCHEV and

    SUMMER SAID
    Updated Oct. 2, 2015 8:42 p.m. ET

    19 COMMENTS
    Russia and Saudi Arabia—the world’s two biggest oil producers—indicated Friday they weren’t pulling back from huge crude output levels that have helped send prices tumbling.

    Russia said it produced oil in September at levels not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union, pumping an average of 10.74 million barrels a day, government data showed on Friday. Oil production increased 0.4% from August...."


    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-50-Oil-Wont-Last.html

    He ended his premise in January with the following logic:

    "...Now consider that companies in these shale plays are reducing their 2015 budgets, and layoffs are underway. The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices, and that cure will begin to take effect this year. I realize that we dropped into the $30′s in 2008, but keep two things in mind. Just over a year later we were back above $100/bbl, and at that time the marginal barrel was not $70/bbl shale oil. The cost to produce that last million barrels per day of demand is significantly higher than it was in 2008. Therefore oil will not — as I have seen more and more pundits predict — sink to $40/bbl and stay there. There may be a new norm for oil relative to what we have seen in the past 5 years, but it will be closer to $70/bbl than it will be to $40/bbl." (January 2015)


    I received a email from a former day trading acquaintance whose entire family has worked in the Panhandle region. One was going to be very rich from his Wild Cat expedition until the bigger Concern decided to mothball his project. In one year he went from being rich on paper to having his little Wild Cat company having to start selling equipment to avoid B.K. Their father worked at Parker Drilling and never really got rich off that stock, I think his father sold when Parker finally hit $8.00 a share.


    I do know this, I noticed a few Oil related stocks have stopped going down and I bought Calls as far as the Market Makers are selling them paying up. Personally I thought back in August we would be stable and by the beginning of September we would absorb most of the Tax Loss Selling but now with September's new round of Lows and brutal losses on Oil and Biotech plus Retail, we should get another chance to buy several sectors again. Once upon a time, Tax Loss Selling usually hit in October, and you wait to buy them and sell for the January Effect. Most of you who have been around the last fifteen or so years, have noticed Tax Loss Selling keeps moving towards Early September or even August.




    I wait till this time of year to buy stocks out of favor, Traders and Multi Month Players can find deep value waiting for the Mutual Funds, Hedge Funds to sell all their losers to close the Book. With the last few days of September creating havoc and forcing both Oil and Biotech Stocks to 52 week lows, I personally think we are going to get another chance to buy and if we don't, we can always join the upward move party of Oil Stocks without risking a nasty crash like "Sad Sack Sam" did!


    "Learning from Sad Sack Steve" about twice a month in late 2004 my former investing friend Jerry sent me his research trying to sway me in to Shorting "New Century Finance" out of Irvine, California. You could hear him argue with the CEO on two conference calls until the CEO stopped taking his calls because he was nasty and his motive was to get the stock to move! He once bragged "I got the stock to move $2 after hours", that did not help his position because he was Short like William Ackman on Herbalife at $33 only to have Carl Icahn, George Soros and several other Hedge Funds bully HLF up to $90.


    This is why I try to avoid speculating on the Bottom, whether it be Oil or any stock, there so many good Short Selling books teaching us to wait for the cracks before jumping on board. There's always time to join a Short once a nasty company starts its cratering to $0.00 Steve and "New Century Finance", he was bought in finally in 2005 when the Hedge Fund Titans were battling each other causing big Buy Ins. Steve got bought in near the High and lost all his money plus some, when the crack's in "New Century Finance" finally started showing through I started to short it, Steve had no money and watched painfully as New Century would eventually go to zero by 2008.


    What relevance does this have on Oil, you can see how people made some very big bets, "The God Hedge Fund", other Big Hedge Funds piled in on Oil because they thought it was the Bottom while all the Countries that desperately need capital are pumping as much oil as they can. Venezuela call's for Emergency OPEC Meetings yet they are one of the biggest cheaters if OPEC did call for "Production Cuts", Spanish American and South American Countries along with many of the Third World Countries would pump everything they could because their in some deep trouble!


    If this post prevents one person from ending up like Steve, I will be happy!
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2015
    NoVoodooHere likes this.
  4. great post
     
    RabidTrader likes this.
  5. Suri John

    Suri John