Yellen said that she sees no bubble, so maybe she want to show the world that she can create one! ;-) More seriously, yesterday price action in the S&P500 and some of the underlying sectors has increased significantly the probability of a blow off top. The move from February to the intermediate top in May is a perfect example of what I would expect to happen. Some people have tried to build models of parabolic moves and this is probably the best model around for the more mathematically inclined: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130415.htm This is what these models look like, they point to a top in late dec/early jan: In my charts below you can find: - The move up in May - My target area for the movement: between 2040 and 2200. Big caveat: it is very difficult to project in advance a target for a parabolic move and indicators/oscillators become meaningless. Volume is probably the only input that we can use, in the sense that we should see an higher than average volume at the end of the move (silver in 2011 is probably the best example) - Charts of staples and discretionary (but you can look at industrials, healthcare or materials, they all show the same behaviour) that shows clearly how we have broken consolidations area on the upside Analysis The technical reason is a breakout on the upside of a wedge pattern. A wedge is a reversal pattern and price is âexpectedâ to break on the downside. If it breaks on the upside, it signals an increase in acceleration and it is even more reliable because of the low probability of this occurring ( a bit convoluted I admit) May 2013 S&P500 STAPLES DISCRETIONARY http://pentothalta.blogspot.co.uk/
Blow off top in may; ok. Its still a bull market, you know. Sure its an extended bull market uptrend .;;extended on 3 year charts[SPY] It looks like pretty extended on monthly candles, also; but buy volume is getting smaller/weaker . Seasonals [4th quarter]are bullish; could easily get more extended/uptrended thru JAN.2014 Not likely it drops like AUG , 2011, but it could
The price action lab blog places the top around January of next year using Hurst exponent analysis and maybe sooner based on projected Fibo levels.
Thanks ronblack, i've never come across this hurst indicator,seems useful Grandluxe: volume should come with price acceleration, just look at various commodity tops. Of course we are talking about volume in a relative sense,ie volume higher than the average before the move.