https://www.zerohedge.com/health/ro...bshell-25-million-iranians-have-been-infected From the start of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, which for a time had the second highest infection rate after China during the early phase of the global pandemic, it was widely believed that authorities there were severely downplaying the true number of cases. But it was also understood the country's already hurting and strained health system would lack for testing and proper care, given also there was a world shortage of test kits. President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday confirmed much of this prior skepticism toward Iran's official case count. He dropped a bombshell statement which if true means Iran far surpasses America's case count (at over 3.6 million), currently the most infected country in the world. Rouhani said a whopping 25 million Iranians have likely been infected with the coronavirus, in the first such statement of its kind affirming that Iran's true numbers are far higher than the official current figure of 271,606. His office did admit, however, that his 25 million figure is an "estimated scenario". If this estimate is anywhere near accurate, it would mean Iran infections alone would surpass the global total of over 14 million.
I guess the market is going to have a serious serious gap down Sunday night, because now that Iran has come clean, so will all the other countries with fake numbers. South Korea anyone? China?
(Republic of) Texas? https://communityimpact.com/dallas-...ate-could-raise-case-counts-in-collin-county/
A lot of epidemiologists think the true infection count far higher than we know of. When NY did it’s initial survey of persons with antibodies, they found something like 21% of NYers had antibodies, whereas they had a confirmed case count of about 4%. Thats a five fold factor. Ten fold (actually Rouhani is claiming a one-hundred fold factor) seems a bit much, though.
More than expected are infected equals fantastic news. Many of us, including some of the experts have been saying the number of people infected has been dramatically higher all along. This means the morality rate is even lower, the need for hospitalization when infected is much lower, when infected you'll probably have little to no symptoms, and means we're closer to the end of the virus than the beginning. Fair guess is we are pushing 60 to 70 million already infected in USA. Very good news.
A lower mortality rate is better than a higher mortality rate but the problem with Covid is it’s highly contagious. Because it spreads so easily and makes a significant number of people seriously sick to the point they need hospitalization and intensive care, it still is going to break the healthcare system AND the economy when it spreads out of control. Also, even with a lower mortality rate - which will go up if the healthcare system is overwhelmed- because of a high rate of spread there will still be high total fatalities.
We have been hearing about the potential overwhelming of the healthcare system for months, actually since the beginning of this. Hasn't happened, not even close. All of that additional capacity that was built went largely unused. We still have that abilty to build extra capacity very quickly if necessary. Bottom line, current rates are being well managed and we can manage more if needed.
If the Iranians low-ball the numbers they are working some angle. Now, if they roll out the high numbers, they are working some angle. As usual, they have problems on the homefront that they have trouble managing. They like to play the "everything is fine" routine until it doesnt work anymore. Then when things get really bad, they swing all the way over to "it's the sanctions and the pandemic." Either way, they never go through a period where the regime is responsible for anything. Maybe it's a good thing, I don't know yet. If they need the pandemic as some face-saving move as an explanation for their other problems and then use that as a reason to dialogue on the sanctions and therefore all the issues that go with it, well then, good. If not, then not. Unfortunately, all the despots of the world, Venezuela, North Korea, Iran, China etc are on the same wavelength as their democrat counterparts in the U.S - they are just hoping for a Biden win so they are in a holding pattern right now. If Biden wins, well then, it's all good for them again.