The markets forever rotating, falling into and out of favor. We're about to enter the last quarter of this year. It's election year as well, I'm assuming there is some market manipulation going on to artificially give false impressions. Looking at some sectors. Gold: is resting up, but still very bullish, I wouldn't be giving up on this yet. A small pullback is on the cards only imo at this point in time. Crypto: just a tad early for a strong conviction, but expecting this to begin a more serious run up. Lithium: again a tad early for any strong conviction but it looks like it's bottoming out. Metals and Mining in general: BHP is a good bellwether, had a rough year, coming out of the rough now, I'm bullish all mining, lots of opportunities, rare earths, iron ore, uranium, copper, other base metals like aluminium, zinc, lead, tin. Nickel I'd be careful as Indonesia have control via huge mines. Nasdaq, SP500, DJ etc: Bullish. As mentioned election year will be influencing imo. Emerging markets: India looking good. Mexico not looking good. Taiwan and China looking strong. Banks / Fintech: Bullish. Agriculture: not one I bother with, underperformer. Energy oil: Bearish at this stage. Energy natural gas: fractured, some good, some bad, very volatile. Coal: fractured, some good and bad. I'd avoid atm as coal commodity is a bit frowned on by funds. There's easier things to trade, you'll probably find low PE's in this sector and high dividends. Heathcare: ya gotta be picky here, some biotechs fly to the moon, others tank. A good specky sector for swing trading in and out quickly.
A couple I keep seeing on the screener are AI app developers, infrastructure software developers, and even an energy company that I presume is supplying this market. AI chip makers fizzled out months ago, and so did my account equity curve!
Technology/ai/semiconductors, definitely one of the strongest sectors, difficult to go wrong swing trading this sector. This chart, technology ETF up ~50% for 12 months.
When I read the title of this thread I thought it was going to be about sector rotation in the markets but the ASX is mostly commodities & banking so your comments make sense. So I looked at the sector breakdown of the EWA ETF (MSCI Australia) and it is 28% basic material+energy+industrials & 44% financial services+real estate. So 72% banking & commodities. It should do well if there is a real recovery in China. Here in the US markets, the fund managers having been crying about an overpriced market since the bottom in October 2022. All of these managers have been saying to exit tech & buy cyclicals. Looks like their dream finally came true. I think since NVDA's last earnings report Utilites have done the best. Looks like since the rate cuts finally happened large cap tech is a dog. I think the utility Vistra is now the number one performer on the S&P 500. Number 2 is nVidia & number 3 is another utility -- Constellation Energy. I think Vistra was responsible for restarting the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor which is suppose to be sold to Miscrosoft for their data center investment. I wonder if this will spur natural gas & coal prices higher.
There's another sector in America which I don't follow which is realestate and Builders. They I believe are doing well. America has far more diversity and depth than the ASX. AS you mention, we in Australia are top heavy mining and Financials, but we are light in technology and manufacturing. We have bugger all crypto, healthcare and biotechnology not much either. Our futures market non existent as far as I can tell. We have a very large listed gold mining sector. We also have quite a large lithium sector, and quite a good selection of uranium stocks.
This is my thinking...But I don't know how to profit from it. In California (and the US) natural gas and electricity prices are rising (from the utilities). People who can afford it, will put a small solar system on their houses...A few panels and a power wall. I don't believe they will even try to connect to the grid...Separate system. The problem is many solar companies are not trustworthy. There is a huge markup and huge city/county fees for putting in the systems. People want and need these systems. So where to invest?? Sunrun, Tesla, inverters, Chinese solar panel companies...I don't know. I have owned TAN and it has done nothing for years. Do I double down? The profit is coming...I just don't know how to play it. PS Lithium could be the answer, if they solve the fire problem...
This is my thinking... Don't attempt to guess or anticipate what may happen too far into the future, just react to the now. And right now copper is the hot to trot with a fresh breakout. Crypto is right on the edge, if it tips upward, move in, if it tips downward, well you're safe because you didn't commit.