How confident are you about this conjecture ? How much are you willing to % risk ? For what kind of payoff ? What would it take to disprove this statement ? There is a book … How to measure anything. I think there is uncertainty in the measure itself. Let’s say the insider tells you the sure thing, The insider might not be 100% reliable. It is not the sure thing anymore. Some phenomenon are more measurable, Some measure are more reliable. But we can always try. & adjust exposure. The Kelly Criterion came from here, How reliable is the messenger ? Redundancy & Co … Half kelly … Why do historian use more than one source of evidence to write up history ? But yeah … it’s hazardous. Risk is likelihood and outcome. We’re likely to get them both wrong. I didn’t expect that.
If one is an uneducated investor, RISK is huge, if you are educated investor, risk is manageable. If you are a uneducated trader, Risk is seldom thought, if educated trader, Risk is everything. But even so, can't control risk 100%. I still have the stock market in uptrend. Had to hedge open profits in short index futures. Because of huge move up since 2008, going to take much to call it a reverse of trend based on couple weeks.
YouTube and social media are all hype, bullshit, colors, theatrics, editing, click bait. That shit will warp your mind and personality to the core, altering your brain processes. Purify and naturalize your life aura instead
Risk, for those who still don't know, pertains to an event happening or not and NOT a dollar lost or gained by such an risky event possibly taking place. Wikipedia definition:- "In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences."
We should be more concerned with the risk that we can control. We cannot control what the market does or doesn't do. We can control how we react to what the market does. The biggest risk we take is not following our own well thought out plan.
Actual risks is the only thing that counts. Initial or structured risk on any single trade is meaningless and was in fact a risk NOT undertaken if price never reached the SL. A momentarily look at ET and a quick post from my retirement perspective.