Calling tops and bottoms is usually a fool's game. However, there has been some happenings that might justify a bottom on the VIX. Now, let me lay out my case for why i feel that the VIX has essentially bottomed. First of all, since VIX futures have been in contango for the past months, they have been steadily mowing down. However, for the first time since this year, they have essentially traced out a bottom at 12.65 with it refusing to go lower. Second, during this month when the S&P dropped a few measly points, VIX spiked over 30% to 14.4. Underlying this would probably be a dramatic squeeze on short VIX trades as traders unwind. Those who track the markets would then argue, but it did drop back down towards 12.85! (for the august contract). I do admit this. However in light of such a dramatic drop in VIX, there was no follow through. The lowest the market touched was 12.85 before shooting back up. Finally, the 80/85 numbers have been a tough nut to crack. The previous correction(if you could even call it a correction) was triggered when the market went for 1885 and failed. Might this be a replica? Therefore from a technical perspective as well as the long/short positioning of players, i would argue that the VIX Aug future has bottomed. Moving towards the fundamental perspective, I would like us to look at Crude Oil. Traditionally, WTI has had an inverse relationship with the S&P500. High energy prices are essentially another form of tax. With the recent price action of crude oil as well as the ukrainian/israel crisis, i would say that the market might have been too complacent in under pricing volatility. No examination could go without a look at the quantitative numbers coming out of the US. First of all i must establish that i do not trust the numbers at all. It is understandable that market data might have to be readjusted as preliminary numbers might not be accurate. However historically the number of revision upwards and downwards have been about equal. This year most numbers have all been revised downwards. If this doesnt seem fishy. I don't know what is. Secondly, the first quarter data has been nothing but bad. However the weather was blamed and analyst became extremely optimistic about Q2 with pent up demand. Yet the data that we are seeing for Q2 has seen almost none of this pent up demand. There been multiple CEOs coming up front declaring that there has been no recovery at all. However, one could always take stock in the unemployment claims data. Yes. Unemployment is going down. However, much of the improvement in data can be drawn from people voluntarily leaving the work force ie. giving up hope of finding a job and relying on benefits. Second, much of the jobs created were part time low value jobs. If one wanted a picture of the US recovery, it would be like i got fired by mckinsey and i took a job at mcdonalds. But it's ok since both firms starts with D. Same same. To conclude, this week is going to be big on the fundamental side. We are going to see data such as Q2 GDP, ISM as well as NFP and these can move the market in a big way. The consensus now is for a Q2 print at about 3%, however Gary Shiling views a print at 1% possible. If that happens, watch out below for the vix tiger.