Mock all you want. When the market crashes, don't say I didn't warn you. I have history on my side. Do you think this time is different?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=281573 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=256065 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=164002 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=268272 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=253915
There is absolutely no indication, at this point, of a "crash". Crashes are rare and are separated by many years. What is likely is a summer time retreat from the top of the S&P Channel to around 1820 by sometime in June. The market could stagnate there, as it often does in summer, and then either recover or continue down to the lower side of the S&P channel by Sept-October. A drop below about 1770 by Sept-October with continuation below would indicate a change in the market complexion, but so far there is nothing to suggest the long range trend of the market has changed. Certainly the rate of increase we have seen should decline some. "Sell in May and go away." Short and intermediate terms traders should not be surprised to see some decline, which long term investors will view as a buying opportunity.