question about VIX options in out months

Question for anyone who has watched and/or traded VIX calls in the past -- here's a simple scenario I am wondering about:

1. Buy Aug 20 VIX calls now, with VIX at ~20. Assume price paid $4.00 to keep it simple.
2. Soon, say in late March, VIX index spikes to 30.

My question is, can I safely assume the August VIX 20 calls will be worth about $10 (intrinsic value) when the VIX hits 30? Or will they be trading at a heavy discount due to traders knowing/assuming most vol spikes come back down relatively quickly?

 

heavy discount. Vix options trade to their corresponding future which is only related to other futures in a relative value basis.

 

thanks, that's what I suspected.

 

don't long vix unless it is down to 12-13 ange, otherwise short vx futures