QQQ is far superior to SPY

So I initially stated testing QQQ versus SPY from an earlier period, and the QQQ absolutely CRUSHED IT. But then I wanted to back as far as I could.

So QQQ started 3/19/99. So I ran my QQQ and SPY tests both from that date.

If you had invested $100 in SPY as of such date, it would have grown to $484.56 today. However, if you had put it into QQQ, it would be $735.33 today. YUGE difference.

In fact, if you had only invested $65.897 in QQQ as of such date, you'd end up with the same $484.56 today as if you had invested $100 in SPY. That's over $34 (!!!!) you could have invested other things that suit your fancy, be it gold, bonds, utilities, fancy cars, hawt women, or, if you are destrina, giant 13" long black dildos.

Now, while the % max draw down on the QQQ is a good bit higher, like 82.96% versus 55.19% for SPY, if that bothered you, you could have just put in the $65.897 and your actual dollar drawdown would have been LESS (and again you could put the rest of your cash in bonds or whatever you consider "safe").

Now, mind you, that was no too long before the HUGE 2000 tech crash, disproportionately crushing the QQQ, including that drawdown. Like I said, if you start after that period, the QQQ crushes it EVEN MORE. Its a slaughter really.

The moral of the story: I've just given you guys some true alpha, go QQQ. You are welcome... and enjoy!!!!

 

Awesome past analysis!!!

However, can you give us any guarantee that QQQ will outperform SPY for the next 6 months, 1 year or 20 years?

 

Stonks go up

 

People try their best to make their trades as high probability as possible. But no trader asks for guarantee before he places his trades.
You are asking something that does not exist in the market.
If you want guarantee, put all your money in your bank account.

 

Wait until he discovers options and futures.

 

TQQQ is far superior to QQQ

 

Long term holding of options and futures do not offer same reward and risk that can be comparable to holding QQQ.
Nor the TQQQ example track back to year 1999.

Those are apples to compare with orange.
QQQ beat SPX both on reward and risk.
You are offering high reward high risk things to compare.

 

Past performance is ... past.

I only use the rear view when backing up.

 

All the things available to traders to make decision are past things.
None can use future thing to predict future.
The fact that there are successful traders prove that past things can be used to predict future.

 

They used to say same thing about Small Cap Value. The thing with alpha is that it vanishes as soon as one thinks one has found one.