So here I'm asking for comments about the difficulties I experience trying to recognize a trending NQ day in time to avoid ending up with a colossal loss. In my case I'm actually trying to pass a oneup trader evaluation. I had passed the $25k a month ago but blew the funded part after it had been going very well. I encounter the exact same problem, same scenario whenever 'that day' inevitably comes. I trade one NQ contract/trade no matter if the eval/funded account is a 25K or $50K. The pattern has become sickeningly familiar and predictable. I have a string of great days, up to 10 or so. Then the day arrives when it's quite evident to me that the institutional manipulators are out in force taking it away from the 'small outsiders', i.e. I wait for a pullback, I enter, it struggles right where I entered then fails. After several attempts to (patiently!) wait for a good entry - and several failures - before I know it I've hit the maximum allowed daily drawdown. I stay in that last trade, feeling 'trapped' since if I jump out then no more trading allowed for that day. Which is probably a good thing. But I stay in it, getting more galled by the minute/hour as I watch the slow, steady, controlled drop with a series of red bars marking lower lows and lower highs. Death by 1000 cuts. Worst case always plays out the same - I hold on until the maximum allowable drawdown is hit, failing my evaluation. Then when they've taken me out it reverses and rises 100+ ticks! So I'm fully prepared for someone here to dub me a dumb shit with no trading discipline and an irrational fear of shorting (well the markets are largely irrational anyway). Of course when I finally figure out I should've shorted it I venture into a short and gee, it reverses and I get burned on the short! Which reinforces my fear of shorting. Countertrend trading is hard enough on the majority of days when the market 'allows' me to take profits, but those days when it appears obvious the institutions are controlling every movement and stop-hunting, I experience outright demoralizing setbacks. I use only the RSI to determine entry points, (no other indicators since they're all lagging anyway) and price ladder/chart action to determine when to exit. Most days this works beautifully. But on the day where the countertrend trading fails, I lose weeks of profit. On the good days I typically net $3-500/day, so my method works under the conditions I face then. But that one dreaded day wipes all of it out. Watching the behavior of the NQ movement on that day leaves me with nothing but galling suspicion about what the institutional, large market-moving insiders are doing. Against people like me anyway, their strategy always works. So my question is, what can I do about this state of affairs, to get by the strongly down-trending days without the devastating setbacks. Any suggestions from anyone here who is successfully trading a volatile instrument like the NQ would be greatly appreciated, so I thank you in advance.
im serious when i say this. just stop and find a better edge. you are describing exactly what most people do so i think you should do something entirerly different or just be a long only or short only trader. you dont need to be both.
I screwed up today aswell, too many trend has turned up, join, trend has turned down, noooo , switched to Demo and got 14 demo losers in a row. Trying to solve the same damn issue like crazy, plus I trade Trend not counter trend so different. Got out of Counter Trend and do a lot better, Counter Trend works in choppy conditions, Trend doesn't, both equally screw you in there own way, no real solution. Trader King is right, if everyone is doing it and allowing for everyone is losing, do something else, the big players know what retail do on mass and no how to take there money.
Thx traderking007. Indeed I need to find an edge for days like that. On the range-trading days I do well regardless if it starts gapped up or down. It's just days like today that I feel like I'm 'in their crosshairs'.
I traded NQ morning session today. Besides the fact that it didn't back and fill whatsoever (was frustrating as it just ripped up or down), I didn't find anything weird about it. In fact, it was textbook trending up until noon est. Perhaps you should give some examples today of where you got stopped out and we could try to help
Was thinking same. Sounds like no edge, seems to be common with these types of post. Always looking for that tip to get rid of the losers when really sometimes just better to move on. You change a few rules to filter out some losers, then you miss out some winners and next thing you know your right back at flipping coins.
I could look at the detail and yes up until the east coast lunch hour it was pretty much a ranging situation, but changed into a down trend some time during the lunch hour. My mistake (as always) was waiting to enter whenever it pulled back 'enough'. I'm aware of patterns where it takes a step down, then rises a little to a consolidation pattern before they push it lower. This afternoon, for a good two hours at least, every time they pushed it down and buyers were lured in, they'd push it down ever further. Several of my trades were actually break-even, but even that didn't stem the bleeding. The other thing is the 'major whole number' area (e.g. 27500) where the institutions typically lure traders in thinking the whole number is support. Sometimes it is - until I try catching what appears to be a breakout from that level that fails. Maybe one caution should be to just refrain from trading around those whole numbers.