Price Bars Matter - In Context

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by BOC, Jun 6, 2015.

  1. BOC

    BOC

    Price bars are, I suppose, in a sense, artificial, whether represented by time, volume, reversals, ticks, what-have-you. This doesn't mean the individual bars can't or don't have meaning when taken in context. Consider a simple strategy using a triple timeframe analysis. First is the longest timeframe for potential support/resistance and trend areas (daily chart here), then go to the intermediate timeframe (4HR) for a setup, then the smallest timeframe (1HR) for entry, and finally back to the the intermediate timeframe again for trade management - stops, scaling, and exit. EURJPY:

    DAILY - Following the uptrend in April, in May there is a consolidation. Note the heavy wave volume at A (ellipse) which fails to break that previous low to the left at X - Effort vs Reward. This bullish behavior is confirmed at B on the wide-spread up bar closing at the high 5/27.

    Note the cluster of opens/closes on the four bars just before just before A. Such clusters often signal an inability to continue in the current direction, here the downward reaction. The spreads - to an extent - and candle bodies - most certainly - contract on the reaction relative to most recent price behavior. At A price stops a few ticks above the previous low at X on very narrow candle bodies, then a wide spread up on good volume closing on the high back to the opens/closes of that previous shelf before A.

    4-HR - Following the rally from C, at D there is low wave volume reaction that finds support at previous resistance from 5/21-5/22. Confirmed at E on the widest spread up in several days.

    From C to the high before D note the prevalence of green candles and their spreads vs the reds. The relative up wave volume is so strong on this rally one might suspect a climax, however the pullback to D is very shallow, brief, at previous s/r, on narrow spreads and low wave volume.

    1-HR - At F on 6/1 a reaction where price makes no downward progress at all, a small cluster, then another cluster at G with no downward progress on very low wave volume. (Entry points.)

    At F there is a relatively wide spread up, then an equal spread down which wipes it out, but there is no follow-thru down, next bar equal spread right back up. Note strong individual volume on that down bar that fails to produce results - Effort vs Reward. Then a relatively wide spread closing on the high breaking out of that cluster, confirmation bar.

    The reaction at G another cluster, shallow retracement, narrow spreads, low volume.

    4-HR - Nice rally to I, then the first 2-bar pullback to J on low volume and little price progress down. There's a nice smooth rally to K, here is strong resistance at a previous high on the daily chart, so resistance is certainly expected in this area on the lower timeframes. Note here the second down bar is the widest spread down bar since 5/22.

    The rally to I is on mostly wide spreads closing on the highs on strong volume, the reaction to J a cluster, shallow, narrow spreads, low volume. Wait, didn't I just say that?

    Rally to K quick on very wide spreads closing on the highs, to that previous daily resistance, on lower wave volume followed by the longest, deepest reaction (currently at 50% of the previous wave from J, always a significant point) since the rally began at C. Note the narrow candle bodies and cluster of closes since that second down bar with the strong down wave volume. Effort vs Reward? Though, natch, we may get further consolidation or retracement in the shorter term, at this point I'm looking for this rally to continue in the intermediate (from C) stage.
     
  2. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    Are the oscillators and indicators there for distraction or aesthetics?

    Can't possibly be for prediction :)
     
  3. BOC

    BOC

    The only oscillator is Delta Momentum. On these longer-term, time-based timeframes, this is simply experimentation. So far I find the Delta Momentum works better on shorter timeframes, 1-min, 5-min, or on Renko bars. Not so much on the 60-min time bars and beyond. This is why, in case you didn't notice, I never referred to them in my analyses.

    The regular volume and wave volume, I've never seen them called oscillators, that's pretty basic stuff - price/volume interpretation. I'll stick with them on any timeframe, as should be evident in my post.
     
  4. What is useful for somebody can be useless for someone else, and vice versa. So there is no absolute correct answer for your question.

    Two examples:
    1. You can built a good house in at least 100 different ways and with different materials. 100 different ways to achieve each time the same result: a good house.
    2. Programmers can built a program to execute some extensive and complicated calculations. If you compare the source code from all those who succeeded,you will see that what they wrote will never be exactly the same. Many ways to achieve the same goal.
    So there are many solutions for the same problem: making money.

    It would be better to replace these useless discussions about what works and what does not work by discussions where adepts of some oponion discuss how they do this and how it can be improved.
    But now many times the discussion seems to go about egos or people who think they have all the wisdom.

    PS: Autodidacts are people who learn everything on their own. For some part it is good because you should form your own objective and realistic opinion. But to built your own opinion correctly, you should first try to gather all available information. This information comes from others too. So autodidacts should be open for that, if not they can only use what they know themselves, which is just a small part of the available wisdom. Not being open minded leads to failure or at least not to real success . :)
     
    fortydraws and stockaholic like this.
  5. BOC

    BOC

    Pardon me for editing your response but I think is this so very important, if possibly a bit OT. There are so many ways to approach the mkts, I think by studying and learning a wide variety of them, only then can one find a suitable technique. Anyone who studies a wide range of methodologies will find common threads among the seeming diversity, which enables you to narrow down your particular style to something that will work for you. It takes time.
     
    dbphoenix likes this.
  6. Exactly!
    Gather as much knowledge as possible and start from there.
     
  7. fortydraws

    fortydraws

    I like your whole post, but how much better ET (and the internet as a whole) would be if everyone simply accepted the simple though quoted above.