Powerful SPX options arb with $9K instant profit and a free hedge

Discussion in 'Options' started by guru, Aug 5, 2021.

  1. guru

    guru

    Or is it?
    The chart below shows $9K instant profit/mispricing, but may be an example of being mislead by these type of charts, and this can happen with many option setups.
    I suspect I know what's wrong with this picture, but let you figure this one out.

    upload_2021-8-5_10-46-20.png
     
  2. You will not get the midprice for these DITM options.
     
  3. On expiredate you will get 1700 but lose 3*530. So you will get 1100 and you pay 1810.
     
  4. guru

    guru

    You will get pretty close. And I just re-tested this trade with the worst possible prices where you pay the full asking price, and there is still $6500 guaranteed profit shown.
     
  5. guru

    guru

    Not really, you can't lose much money by the expiration (September 17) because this trade is perfectly balanced, meaning you have 4 DITM calls and you sell 4 DITM calls, so nothing can happen unless the stock market crashes below the 2830 call strike in the next 42 days, in which case you'd make even more money.
    So by September 17 you should be able to get the exact same price you just paid, and there is no reason to lose money unless the prices of various options would change for some reason.
    There is also a way to prove it, as the option P&L/risk graph shows that the 600C/2300C diagonal spread is mispriced by $10K, because it should be worth at least 2300-600 = 1700, but in reality is priced at ~1600, so $10K profit comes just from here:

    upload_2021-8-5_12-39-20.png

    I added other options in my previous/initial graph to protect the downside, thus being able to collect this $10K in mispricing without risk.

    But that ~$10K profit is false, so the question still remains: where does it come from, and why the ToS shows bogus profit.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2021
  6. I looked at some like that a couple years ago. Diags and calendars aren't always modeled correctly. Especially the weeklies. Here is a sure fire winner...not. The IVs will change at different rates, so at the near expiry, profits are gone. At least, that's what seemed to be happening. But I'm just a little retail hack. I'll let you experts figure stuff out. :rolleyes:

    SPY NO LOSS.jpg
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2021
  7. guru

    guru


    The image seems missing, if you could repost it again?
     
  8. guru

    guru


    Nope. Maybe you posted a link to an image on your local computer?
    Maybe try copying and pasting the image itself.

    upload_2021-8-5_13-50-11.png
     
  9. Uploaded as a file. Hope this shows up.

    SPY NO LOSS.jpg
     
    guru likes this.
  10. AKJ

    AKJ

    Lol, you just discovered that SPX forwards correctly price for anticipated dividends. How exactly do you expect the June 2023 $600 call to be priced on the Sept 2021 expiration date?
     
    #10     Aug 5, 2021
    shuraver and guru like this.