Think about the kind of news you'd see if the tariffs were more likely and vice versa, and what the pro boys might do. Such a binary event is where money can be made. Think you know Trump is a dimbulb who gives in to the Chinese? Go long assuming he will capitulate. Think Trump is a dimbulb who will destroy America to feel better about himself? Go short. But I think the pro boys will signal the direction they want the market to go before the binary event, so they can stock up going the other way. https://news.yahoo.com/us-tariffs-loom-over-160-142430040.html
Right now with the markets juiced and at new highs he can definitely lay on the tariffs on sunday morning and not have to worry about the markets selling off, however he isn't going to raise tariffs this weekend. No raise in tariffs is just another win for China. Sunday will see futures move an easy 1-2% in either direction.
What I'd start looking for if he is going to delay is for the news to start with doomsday tonight until Friday. Then btfd
It’s a buy either way. Spy going to 400 in 2020 regardless. The trade news is just front or back loading the increase. Nice thread btw