In that I believe I have, for all intents and purposes, completed by "research" into day trading foreign currency pairs using Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), and having resolved that I would not recommend swing trading the same, I intend to use this latest journal to track the accuracy (or lack thereof) of how I apply NPP to position trading. I'm going to begin by comparing my protocol for Forex trading to what I do with respect to Index futures. There, I regard the one- and two-week baselines as relatively short-term/fluctuating measures, requiring entering and exiting positions every few days if used as trigger signals. For more reliable/valid/stable representations of the longer-term sentiment/bias, I use the eight-, 12- and 16-week measures. (The four-week baseline is too slow to pinpoint entries and exits with precision, but too unstable to convey where price is more than likely headed in the long run. Conversely, when it comes to Forex, I prefer to use daily rather than weekly charts, with the long-term direction suggested by the 60-day (10- or 12-week?) baseline, and the more actionable intermediate sentiment/bias represented by the 12-day (two-week) measure. My first look is going to be at USDJPY, which appears like it could be on the threshold of a reversal north after a bearish leg initiated back at the beginning of (or shortly before) the first of November 2022. (The rate is currently below the 12-week baseline, which turned north right around May 19, 2020, and is still just a tad bit bullish.)
AUDUSD has been coming down since the middle of June, 2021, and the 60-day baseline is still bearish. However, the 12-day measure has been climbing since November 23rd and still is. I will therefore be watching and waiting the the two-week baseline to reverse direction and head south again (at which point, I would enter a short position if I were a position trader).
I would be staying away for EURGBP. This pair has gone nowhere since 2016. And prior to that, was pretty much stuck in this same region from 2008 to 2014.
GBPUSD was on the decline pretty much from the end of May 2021 to the end of September 2022, at which point, it executed an ascent that lasted until December 15th. Since then, the pair has essentially gone nowhere. However, the two-month baseline is still bearish, and now that the 12-day moving average is turning south as well, the forecast has to be for the rate to resume dropping over the next couple of months.
AUDUSD is way down from 0.6982. Nonetheless, the 12-day baseline still has yet to confirm (or validate) this apparent resumption of an overall push south by hooking downward. (I should have noted that USDCAD turned north again about eight days ago, as the forecast models suggested it might do, but I guess I've been asleep at the wheel.)
At 0.6745, AUDUSD has essentially gone nowhere in the last four days. Nonetheless, the 12-day baseline just might be evidencing the slightest signs of turning over right now.
Actually, looking back over February, GBPUSD didn't really go anywhere, but just tread water for most of the month.