Polls: HOW RELIABLE ARE THE FIGURES ANYWAY?

OddTrader · Sep 9, 2016

Could ‘Shy Trumpers’ save Donald?

September 9, 2016

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work...d/news-story/070a4b61fb4b8a6bf11d6a9c8ae8f7e0

HOW RELIABLE ARE THE FIGURES ANYWAY?

Polling figures, of course, perpetually fluctuate.

Sometimes — like during the 2012 presidential election — they can be accurate to a tee.

But other examples, such as the 2015 United Kingdom general election and the Brexit vote, prove the actual results can be very surprising.

“Polling data via phones isn’t as reliable as it was four or eight years ago,” said Switzer, referring to the two previous elections. “The game is changing. It’s possible that in the next eight years, the telephone polling won’t even be valid.

“This is because of mobile phones. I’m one of many people who don’t even have a landline. The next generation is younger, they’re less likely to use landline phones. This would explain why the Brexit polls were inaccurate, and why Trump will do better in the election than we expect.”

Polls don’t always accurately predict the outcome.Source:News Limited

While he doesn’t believe Trump will win, he acknowledged that pundits and pollsters alike have been consistently wrong about the candidate since his election rise.

“Trump represents repudiation of Washington,” he said. “If we were to see more volatility in the first couple of months — a terror attack, a sharp economic downturn, or an October surprise — that would only help Trump.

“But he distinguished himself from the other Republican candidates on a lot of issues — immigration, opposition to the free market, opposition to trade unions. He tapped into a widespread sense of anxiety in the country. He became the real deal.

“Americans want change. They’re tired of the world. They keep losing these wars in the Middle East. They want change, and Trump resonates with those folks.”

We may just have to sit tight and wait till November to see what happens.
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Polls: HOW RELIABLE ARE THE FIGURES ANYWAY?

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