Poll 20/30 year treasuries

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by Tsing Tao, Oct 10, 2022.

Will rates on the 20 or 30 year be higher or lower at the end of 2023?

Poll closed Oct 24, 2022.
  1. Higher

    37.5%
  2. Lower

    62.5%
  1. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Feel free to elaborate on why if you'd like, or merely vote.

    For giggles:

    upload_2022-10-10_8-4-18.png
     
  2. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    Tao how’d Ian treat you? I was praying for you guys.
     
  3. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Thanks, brother. Wind was nasty, not a whole lot of rain, though. Lots of debris - neighborhood had some trees down. Power out for 3 days - but I had a generator. House had no damage (did my new roof back in May/June). Could have been a lot worse. Had it gone the way it was supposed to (72 hours earlier) we'd have gotten nothing but rain, but greater Tampa and St. Pete would have been beatdown. Because we are east of the city, and because it turned inland before hand to race through the state, we got all the wind and it was actually worse for us.
     
    ElCubano likes this.


  4. TYX is just shy of major resitance right now but TNX has arrived at the same resistance. This almost completes the major upmove from March 2020.

    Rates will then drop like a stone toward ZEEEEEROW
     
  5. Ultra simplification of the Interest Rates scenario for the US ............

    US = next Japan = 0% & below and this time given BEAR's sense of humor, RATE will go to
    minus 5% = we pay Banks Interest. :cool::):D
     
  6. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    See, I think rates will eventually be lower (I voted lower) in a year, but I think that QE and ZIRP/NIRP are done for a long while.

    Gotta listen to Lacy Hunt.
     

  7. Thanks for that .............

    this her eis the only thing I go by, no need to talk to anyone else .............

    showing only TNX below cause my TYX data is messed up with errors from supplier .........

    TNX hits Fibo target in A-B-C = (B). Next move is hard hard, hard DOWN DOWN after residual bullishness in the upmore exhausts - could be days or week or weeks for exhaustion to complete then down hard toward ZERO and below

    The next Japan is the USA fighting DEFLATION for the next 4 decades



    TNX monthly



    upload_2022-10-11_9-15-49.png
     
  8. I think we are moving too fast right now to bother with FRED on interest rates and its slower frequency compared to FedWatch.
    We have shifted up in expectations quite a bit from 9/12
    [​IMG]

    I am a fan of the stacked area chart they have in the historic data section too if you look at the most probable rates and turn off rates that have gone stale.
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2022
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    Dec 2023 eh? So you're just skipping the entire next 13-month period. WOW. That is what we call a bold prediction.