I really do not want to do this,, I hate holding overnight. But stats say that the market makes a substantial move overnight. One study showed over 600% return from 1993 if you buy SPY at the close and sell at the open the next day. VS. 165% if you buy at the open and sell at the close. has anyone done this strategy?
correction.. this is from a 2018 study If you had bought the SPY at the last second of trading on each business day since 1993 and sold at the market open the next day — capturing all of the net after-hour gains — your cumulative price gain would be 571 percent. On the other hand, if you had done the reverse, buying the E.T.F. at the first second of regular trading every morning at 9:30 a.m. and selling at the 4 p.m. close, you would be down 4.4 percent since 1993.
How about adding day of week and day of month (even day of year) to determine whether to take trade or not? Do a search for Scott Andrews Gap Guy for more info.
So far in 2025 (excluding last week), we've had 83 trading days with 42 of them opening gap down with the average gap down being 45 points. The largest gap down was 198 (!) points. This is ES. In order to master the trading game, you really need to do your own research and pile up your own data collection. That's how you develop a system and understand which you can trust (and trade). Don't ask for trading advice publicly. What if somebody replied that buying every electronic close was a free money strategy? You'd trade on that? Because some random dumbo online said so?
Yeah I’ve looked at year to Date info. I don’t think there’s any kind of edge here. And I’d be stuck worrying about it overnight
Not on that basis alone, no, assuming day trading here. Some may say otherwise, though. They tend to go quiet when it's not working out, though...
Unless I'm mistaken SPY (which is what OP referred to) does not trade 8pm-4am so mentioning ES is not of much use, which as you know, trades round-like-clock other than one hour late aft. Having the ability to exit before the next trading day might help one's confidence in executing a gap trade plan fully.