Piper Sandler & Co.’s macro research team will no longer publish a single-number forecast for where the S&P 500 Index will end the year, calling it an inefficient way to communicate with clients. Predicting the US equity benchmark’s performance in absolute terms has become futile in light of the concentration of companies in the gauge, with the 10 biggest stocks accounting for 37% of the index, according to Piper Sandler’s chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz. “I didn’t see the value in raising my target again, given how it’s become such a poor form of explaining stocks, which is what it was initially meant to represent,” he said. “Having target prices on individual stocks makes sense, but makes less sense nowadays for the index.” Katrowitz held a bearish outlook on the stock market through most of 2023, but reversed his view at the end of the year. In February, he raised his S&P 500 target again to 5,250. The index is currently trading at more than 5,500. Tony Dwyer, who recently left his day-to-day strategist role at Canaccord Genuity LLC, is among the soothsayers who’ve abandoned year-end targets for the S&P 500, saying it’s impossible to make calls when only a handful of stocks comprise such a large share of the index’s market value. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ys-practice-is-poor-form?srnd=homepage-europe S&P 500 has become a CASINO index.
I have said this for years but literally no one believes its the fed who has created these irrational markets...... The fed intervention in this market us unreal....if the fed never handed the markets trillions of dollars the s&p at this moment would be sitting under 1000!
The last few months Piper Sandler had become pretty bearish. Its obviously they were wrong and now have egg on their face. Separately, the mega-bear from JP Morgan Kolanovic got the heave ho this morning as well. That guy had been bearish since like Q4 2021 but refused to acknowledge the reality of the nVidia juggernaut.
does anyone understand that the sp has been crashing for 4 years? as all people focus on is the number of the price is escalating. the value of those increasing numbers everyone is so awestruck by, is worth huge percentages less and less every day. people who think today is the same as yesterday are blissfully ignorant.
%% Must be a fundamentalist only that pays not much attention to; funds, market history, trends +price , supply + demand + [countertrends]. 2] We cant really blame the FED , US markets UP/trended 100 years before Fed was created. 3]Easy, in hindsight to be bearish JAN 2023, not clear in JAN 2023, or if bear of 2023 was over. then. Piper Sandler , bearish ''most of 2023'' wow= get better help than that LOL. 777 ]Tech has had some super trends, much , much better than even a good benchmark like SPY; some of those liquid ETFs have 20% NVDA..... QCOM had a super run up also. I tried short term trading NVDA+ lost money LOL/ made more with QQQ, SPY +SSO......
For those with no investment experience VOO (S&P500 ETF) or VGT (Nasdaq ETF) still a good way to go. Even if the bulk concentration of them are in a handful of companies they are regularly adjusted if any rise or fall from grace.
Except for a few niche areas like some restaurants, retailers and greening industrials this rally is strictly semis & the hyperscalers and their enablers. Like I said before all you need is SMH & FNGS (or MAGS). I believe FNGS has outperformed MAGS. Another benefit of FNGS is there is a 3X version, however there is only a 2X version of MAGS. I thought the home builders would do well too but looks like the high interest rates and slowing economy has even caught up to them. I gave up on the XHB trade awhile ago. YTD FNGS 43.3% MAGS 37.5% SMH 54.2% XHB 3.2% QQQ 19.9% SPY 16.0% Amazingly (SMH+FNGS)/2 = 3X SPY.
I follow all of those etfs however on the down side when the markets sell off the 2x and 3x get annihilated......FNGU is a 3x, it's up 100 dollars in 1 week.....the etf is just rising non stop. It's moving up so quickly and so strongly you actually have to question that the next drop could drop this etf straight down $100 in a only a week or 2. ....the tech trade is so crowded it's insane....especially anything in AI.....how long can these same stocks that power the markets keep going. The amount of earnings they have to show to keep this upward momentum contained is going to have to be phenomenal....