People Underestimate Randomness In This Profession

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Fundlord, Oct 26, 2015.

  1. Fundlord

    Fundlord

    Quote from another thread:



    This guy didn't go to college and just was in his 20s (prime age) when the tech boom was occurring. Started off investing in mutual funds and 6 months later started day trading tech stocks.

    He explains it in the video as, buy intel 51 sell at 54 every day like clockwork everyday. Buy at the bottom sell at the top of the range. 6am to 1pm he was gambling as he puts it.

    Made enough to buy his first house then moved onto flipping real estate.

    Bought more houses then multiplexes sold made millions retired and lives off his meathead lifestyle/supplement company.

    What if he was born in 1994, wtf do you think his life would look like ? Most likely still working as a bouncer somewhere living in a shack in LA.

    He didn't have any edge whatsoever he made money off randomness like 90% of successful traders who think they have some insight that nobody else does.

    While an edge is useful its not required.

    If your levered up in the right direction in front of right moves your going to end up wealthy. Despite whether people bash you saying you have no edge, trend following, s&r, candles, TA, fundamentals, algos etc

    There are traders here making tons of money using strategies that professionals would laugh at and shrug off as hocus pocus, but who cares as long as your making bank.

    Focus on whether you are making money not whether your strategy fits some nonsense definition of an "edge"

    This profession is heavily influenced by randomness just like the world of Hollywood, everyone thinks they are the best and that their way is the right way but you are at the whim of external factors that you cannot control. All you have is your account and your risk management in this world.
     
  2. Gambit

    Gambit

    I respect Rich Piana for his candor and being opportunistic. Those are great qualities to have in life. As long as we traders couple the hocus pocus with solid risk management, we can gamble away to our heart's content :)
     
    dartmus and FCXoptions like this.
  3. To be honest he sound pretty smart to me. He keeps saying it was 'luck', maybe it was, but as @Gamebit says, I think that guy understands how to manage risk pretty good.
     
    dartmus likes this.
  4. Gambit

    Gambit

    I think Rich dumbs himself down for his audience sometimes. Sometimes he's just plain dumb but hey, all of us are dumb on occasion. :D
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2015
    dartmus likes this.
  5. Thanks for sharing that, I've watched some of his videos before, and always wondered how he got to where he is financially. Because when I first watched one of his videos, he was showing off his house, cars, etc and I don't think his supplement company was big at all then, so was always curious how he got to that level initially.
     
    dartmus likes this.
  6. Luck is definitely a factor in Success, who knows...maybe through a combination of life circumstances and other variables and coincidences and divine intervention... :eek:

    But like you mentioned, once you're there...you need a combination of street and book smarts...to make it lasts, and grow.
     
  7. I agree with the essence of your message. If you read for example Market Wizards, several of the guys did a 'bet the farm' high risk trade and used that as their stepping stone into the major leagues.

    No. I didn't watch the video, but from what you're saying here he didn't make money from randomness, but he found and exploited a consistent pattern at the time.

    I think a lot of people experience this. Typically, trend traders or buy the dip traders in an up trend.

    The challenge with being long-term successful in this business is that there are a myriad of patterns and conditions that are always changing, so you essentially need to learn them all in order to be consistently successful year after year. This is what most people fail to achieve.

    Who? And what strategies? :)
     
    dartmus likes this.
  8. Aj2014

    Aj2014

    Well on forums like this, I think without lots of live calls, you kind of have to take peoples word for it.
    JackHershey said he made abouy 50K per hour. DB seemed to imply that the market was as easy as falling off a chair so one would assume he made millions. Then there's nodoji etc.
     
    dartmus likes this.
  9. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    Yep thats the issue, at times I'm hot, at others exact opposite, nothing but losers.

    Reckon I have 75% of market conditions tradeable, giving up and learning to avoid the rest.


    There arent many i believe on here, anyone who claims prediction ignore basically.
     
    dartmus likes this.
  10. R1234

    R1234

    100% Meathead. But has top decile instinct for business.
     
    #10     Oct 27, 2015
    dartmus likes this.