The backbone of the approach I've settled into using for day trading Forex binary options rests on entering positions at the tops and bottoms of intraday cycles. The purpose of this journal is to start keeping track of when these events are occurring and note if any patterns begin to emerge or if they seem to be totally random. Of course, these times are all local (Los Angeles) and if I hope to form a picture in my head, I'm going to need to round them off. So, I going to think of them as: Just before 3:30 in the late afternoon, Just before 11 o'clock at night, Just before 1 AM in the morning , Around 4:30 AM, and Just before 7:30 in the morning. EURJPY Bottomed out at 3:30 in the late afternoon. Began falling from a peak at around 1:30 early in the morning. Formed its last trough at 4:50 AM (just before five o'clock in the morning).
EURJPY - November 20, 2023 Top 4:05 PM Bottom 8:15 PM Bottom 3:45 AM (the turn south at 11:40 PM did not qualify as a "peak") Last top at 7:00 AM (So far, it seems like it's not uncommon to see a sustained move from...like...11 PM or midnight to 4 AM in the morning; or from 3 PM or 4 PM in the late afternoon to 8 PM to 11 PM in the evening.)
I think this is an exception, not the rule. The tide has finally reversed and those traders who were trapped basically panicked. Same with the short squeeze that we're going through now.
Day After Thanksgiving... Last Piece of the Puzzle: This little exercise I started about a week ago has the feel (to me) of wrapping things up. As I'm looking at my charts now, it's almost as it I'm saying in my mind, "Okay, there's nothing else I want to know." I've only made seven trades in my OANDA account since November 9th, partly because I've spent the last month or so primarily focused on NADEX, and partly because I've spent that same period of time endeavoring to eliminate any inferior or extraneous aspects to my trading conventions so that I only give my attention to those factors the will, in all likelihood, lead to my making the "right" decision given whatever set of circumstances are presenting themselves. Consequently, I only made an OANDA trade when all the elements seemed to be properly aligned. So fortunately, all seven of those trades had a positive outcome... In reading other's comments about their successful Forex trades, I know there are individuals enjoying profits of a hundred pips, or even several hundred pips. But personally, given the nature of foreign currency pair price action, a 30-pip gain per trade is about the maximum I might hope for at any given time under normal circumstances—and there is no minimum. If a pair reverses direction on me, I'm satisfied just to get out at break even, so a two-pip gain in such situations is more than enough to make me happy. No longer am I inclined to set goals, as I once was, except to say that my goal is to take whatever the market gives me—no more and no less. Therefore, my plan now is to increase returns by increasing size. If, as I'm hoping, all the pieces are indeed in place to almost take losing trades out of the picture, I intend to place more and more at risk per each trade so long as the percentage of winning transactions remains high, so that trading a lot or remaining in the market for extended periods becomes totally unnecessary, given that I am more than satisfied by what is generated from even relatively small price fluctuations.
By the Numbers These two lower panels are from the five-minute chart configuration that includes the numbers 24 and 15 in the name of the template. They are designed, NOT to dictate what traders are to do, but rather, merely to assist them in acting objectively by serving as visual representations of statistical information. They are tools traders can refer to before making final decisions to see if the numbers agree. So then, how should these two lower-panel indicators be interpreted? The answer to this question is not yet set, so the following are simply ideas regarding this topic that might turn out to be valid (or not). For starters, the top panel's bold, dark goldenrod bands represent reversal levels. So, if the dark gray oscillator makes contact with either of them, one should be prepared to see price turn around and head in the opposite direction in relatively short order, if only temporarily. On the other hand, if the oscillator breaches the bold, dark goldenrod upper or lower band to the exterior of the channel, it suggests that the corresponding asset has in all probability begun trending with the support of some serious momentum. Once this happens, as soon as the oscillator re-enters the interior of the channel, the run is presumed over. The oscillator’s "directional tendency" between the two bold dark goldenrod bands generally reflects the trajectory of intraday price flow. This is especially true when the oscillator is climbing higher above the top thin goldenrod inner band, or crawling lower below the bottom thin goldenrod inner band. If the oscillator is more-or-less restricted to the (gray) zone between these two thin goldenrod inner bands, the market might be all but "dead;" or at the very least, its sentiment or bias could be extremely ambiguous, meaning that traders shouldn't even think about entering a position. (Of course, all of this must be confirmed by referring to the top/main chart, to ensure that the numbers comport with reality.) But, as soon as the oscillator breaks out above or below the upper or lower inner band, it means the short-term trend is (probably) back in business. (The bottom window can help to confirm whether this true—but more about that in a moment.) And speaking of the lower "Christmas-color" panel, if its two oscillators cross below the center of the channel, the gist of the short-term trend is probably bearish. Conversely, when the two oscillators cross above the center of the channel, the gist of the short-term trend is likely bullish. However, there should not be a lot of weight assigned to these maneuvers in that such fluctuations can occur relatively frequently and last only momentarily, thereby highlighting what's apt to be brief and insignificant price action. So then, the real value of of this panel is in comparing it with the one directly above. For when the two oscillators in the bottom window cross to one side or the other SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH the dark gray oscillator crossing above or below the upper or lower thin dark goldenrod inner band in the middle window (or even just the CENTER of the panel), then even temporary fluctuations might not be so insignificant... And if the two oscillators break to the outside of the upper (green) or lower (red) band, it might (or might not) signal the start of something really big. So long as they maintain the same trajectory, expect to see price stay the course (especially if the dark gray oscillator in the center window remains positioned on the outside of the region bounded by the bold dark goldenrod bands). But, as soon as they start to lose ground, price is almost sure to immediately reverse direction. Again, these are merely graphic aids designed to reflect statistical data that should theoretically assist a trader in confirming that he or she is acting objectively; and they are used in conjunction with the indicators plotted in the upper/main chart, none of which appear in the above images.
Note that the 7:15 PM daily high from the last 24-hour market cycle did not "technically" qualify as such by your definition. Also, I find it interesting that the subsequent 11:30 PM local high occurred at the same time as the previous 24-hour market cycle's low... By the way, it's looking like the last top and/or bottom for each cycle on a number of pairs is often occurring in the neighborhood of seven to seven-thirty in the morning.
Given that NADEX's knock-outs leave the remainder of the week for positions to play out fully, figuring out a way to enter positions at the weekly high or low would be ideal. Unfortunately, to date this is a nut I have yet to crack, but my hope is that the additional perspectives that are now a part of my repertoire might offer one or more links that were always missing in the past. Accordingly, I plan to spend at least part of next week attempting to identify one or more tactics able to generate successful outcomes in this regard, working with the pairs whose current market structures seem more favorable than all the others, including USDCAD.
Actually, USDCAD spent the last six hours of the week bouncing off a 1.3593 reversal (statistical support) level. So, even though it is technically bearish, IF circumstances dictate, I might look to buy the pair and ride it north up to as high as 1.3671 or 1.3697 BEFORE entering a short position.