As always, I am stating it before the main stream financial media figures it out. Those July NAR numbers, with falling 30 year fixed rates and rising inventory.... one doesn't need to go to Wharton to figure it out. The headline news starting soon, and extending across the next 8 months will read: "The average cost of buying a home drops for a **?**--- (3rd, 4rth, 5th)--- consecutive month in a row. " If you wanna move.... and you need to dump your house.... do it now... we are at peak housing. ~vz
Figuring out and beating the stock market is challenging... but figuring out the real world... We're at peak housing folks. You can mark this post.
Peak housing? They've come sound close to 50-100k since the pre rate hike. Granted we were coming off a hot market. The housing market if it was going to crash would have crashed within 15 months of the first rate hike. Not at the pivot point. If you don't buy a house now, you're probably going to pay more for it next year. What most people on the sidelines will start to realize is they can get a variable rate now as the rate drops over the next few years. But it's an election year so I guess your housing market has been propped up.
Come on guys...why would housing prices crash when interest rates start dropping? The housing market is no different than the stock market. https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/ https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage/mortgage-rates/housing-market/
Short NAIL instead, housing prices will probably climb into 2025 but overall he housing market is due for a pull back and NAIL will be dropping hard once this takes place, will easily lose half its value !!!! I'm short around 140 and will keep adding more short positions if it keeps moving up!!
If the housing price is dropping, why do you need to dump your house and then move? You can just easily scoop up a 2nd home?
Meh. You’re fighting the last war, dude. The time to scream “peak housing” and “houses will crash” was in 2006-2007. At the time, housing was treated as a growth asset, there was plenty of new construction, turnover of existing homes was high, lots of rate-sensitive leverage in the system due to ARMs etc and finally rate of home ownership was high. At the moment, RE is the only true inflation protected asset, rents are high as fuck, supply is limited, most mortgages are fixed rate, turnover is small and there is pent up demand from millennials. Some WFH real estate will get softer because of RTO, though these areas are probably already down. Broadly, it’s gonna be about employment - if we see high unemployment, we gonna see housing softer. My point is - I’ll take the other side of your bet. Given that both HPI and CS index have volatility of roughly 7% annualized, my bet would be “is hosing index for July 2025 more that 14% (ie “crash”) lower than level for July 2024?”