Ha. Pretty simple really. I'm not one to post elaborate charts with lots of lines, colors, and elaborate studies for overlays. I just watch certain stocks' action real-time on my monitors day in and day out and get a feel for how they move. The reason they are on my monitors is because I feel they are overvalued. I like to hunt piggies. In the case of PCLN, its easy. The PE is too high, there is no dividend, and the competition is growing every quarter. I also don't foresee any major press releases that could slam dunk kill a short position. I think their earnings on 8/3 will come in on the lower end, and I think geopolitical factors are going to force them to re-evaluate their outlook for the near future. They don't deserve the multiple they trade at. I see very little growth and growing competition. Lastly, not unlike my dog on a cool summer night when I let her out... I like to sense what's in the air. Certainly not a Quinnipiac Poll, but I have heard quite a few negative customer service related comments from folks in my circle that use them. Or did use them. So all in all..... IMO, and my opinion only.... its time to short the pig. I wish I would have posted this yesterday, and jumped for that matter. We shall see. Hope that answers your question and good luck.
$1327 Beating EPS is easy, thats accounting voodoo. Growth... thats what's going to move it. The multiple is too high. No divy. Geopolitical factors. Nahhhhh ....its peaked.
There's a way you both can be right and wrong at the same time. One, the market is topping, now that means nothing cause it could rally another 2,000 points and break it's technical foundations, but we're oversold, twenty-times over valued (though at one point we've been far more, so anything is possible). But, if the market breaks and does it's correction, Growth can be the deciding factor that bearish people look at in the market and make their decision and sell dropping the price immensely (it saw a low in Brexit of 1148 and the September Calls are only 55 dollars, or 5,500 dollars a piece, which to make the call completely profitable would just have to drop down to 1270 dollars, which it's done on a yawn from the market, and if it were to drop down to post brexit levels, you'd be sitting on a 10,000 dollar profit per contract. Now, the market rallies more, Growth will be a deciding factor and it will take the price soaring higher. The question, generally would be, where is the market going to be in the next few weeks.
One also possible move for the speculator's among us is to buy the 1150 puts for September. PCLN's gap ups are no more than 140 dollars, which would depreciate the value of the options by about 4 to 5 dollars. It's gap down moves are 200 to 300 dollars, which, if it moves down in such a way would 5x to 10x your investment. If my system gives me the sell signal, this is the position that I'm taking, it's low risk (roughly 2% of my account--while allocating a total of 10% of the account), it's incredibly high reward, 100% return on my account at the best possible move, and a move it's historically done 3 times already in the last year.