Tesla Earnings: Too Calm Before the Potential Storm? Political Headwinds and Regulatory Uncertainty Add Complexity to Tesla’s Earnings Ahead of October 23rd Report This article analyzes Tesla's expected earnings move ahead of its October 23rd report after the bell, highlighting the lowest implied earnings move since October 2021. While Tesla’s historical trend has shown larger-than-expected earnings moves, political factors may shift the focus. Elon Musk’s endorsement of Donald Trump and ongoing controversies surrounding ESG policies, combined with potential regulatory changes in the electric vehicle industry, could overshadow Tesla’s financial performance. With Tesla's earnings announcement just a day away, investors are closely monitoring the market's pricing. According to ORATS data, Tesla's expected move for this quarter’s earnings annoucement is the lowest since October 2021. Does this suggest a quiet reaction, or is the market underestimating the potential volatility? The expected earnings move is derived from the straddle price—a combination of a call and a put option expiring immediately after the earnings event. By removing the residual value of the straddle after the event but before expiration and dividing that by the stock price, ORATS estimates the percentage move the market expects. For Tesla, that number is 6.2%, below its 12-quarter average of 7.3%. Historically, however, Tesla has been no stranger to bigger swings. Over the last twelve quarters, Tesla's actual earnings moves averaged 9.2%, consistently exceeding the implied moves. This indicates that while investors expect muted action this time, Tesla has a track record of delivering surprises. https://gyazo.com/aa28e7ecfe90fe5aaa0ebbf788fae374 more here: https://orats.com/blog
Unit sales and his BS product announcements move the stock. Earnings don't move the needle. Short vol, short SL. Long the calendar, rt-neutral (ratio M1). Short time fly (Nov 1, 8, 15).
Most of what I'm hearing is that tesla will beat and the stock will rise......he has been discounting every single vehicle. Sure margins will be hit but he just want units sold. Cyber truck was literally dropped by 20k the other day. ...imagine the sucker's rushing to buy that garbage truck only to see it discounted 20k haaaaa. All his other ideas is just talk. Nothing has even proven anything and profits if they ever come to light are still years away. Didn't they predict this company would be worth trillions upon trillions of dollars now.....years back people were buying this stock hand over fist now it's just sitting still...but yea most are predicting a move to the upside after earnings tomorrow!!!
0.75 mid. too much gamm to survive the 17% move, but only a 35 cent loss on 100. It will earn by exp.