You don’t necessarily need to interpret complex candlestick formations or have a tricked out indicator package in order to have higher reliability when it comes to anticipating price action. David Ellis - one of the best traders I’ve ever met, taught me an amazingly effective trade rule. When I am looking for a market to sustain a rally - I want to see higher highs and higher lows. Conversely, a quality sell-off must have lower lows and lower highs. Works on one minute bars, works on one week bars. Adjust your profit targets and stop-loss levels to your past thirty bars of modeled trading range. Don’t be greedy - take a chunk out of the trading range then look for your next opportunity. David was a legend in the S&P Pit and he started DE Trading / International Trading Group in Glenview, IL. I was his first monster spread trader. He’s retired in Boca now.
My results improve with the less I need to use, over complication is a reason most fail, they need 6 indicators and PA to provide confidence.
Assuming that is all to it, this is pretty much speculation. Just because something made lower lows or higher highs doesn't mean that will continue. Not saying you can't make money speculating but just not my cup of tea. Best of luck, I think its required with a strategy like this. However the idea of KISS is truly great, Rise above the noise.
This is a belief of someone who is better off stuffing their roll in a low risk mutual fund. I finally have internalized the most important aspect of being a trader and it came directly from my poker experience - Get in when the odds are in your favor, and get out when they are not. For me now, that translates directly into making plays in options. For a guy on the floor it simply meant listening to what symbol people are screaming the loudest. I don't attempt to time the market. I place a trade for the maximum I am willing to risk so I don't blow my roll in the times that I see the odds are with me, I get out when I hit my risk limit or the odds go against me. Period. If the odds are with me it doesn't really matter when I get in (of course getting a good price is important...) as long as the variance doesn't break my risk limits. I am playing a million seat table at the world's greatest poker game. Anything else is glorified tea leaf reading.
To clarify, Just because something made lower lows or higher highs, doesn't mean there is anything probable.
From poker you should clearly know that there is no such concept as a "streak". When you are dealt strong hands then this has nothing to do with a streak but it is caused by randomness. If you believe otherwise then that simply means you are superstitious, nothing else. There are cases when trend continuations can be quantified and can be statistically proven, however, in most cases trend continuations are as random as a break of trend. Higher highs and lower lows have generally zero bearing on whether a trend continues or not if there was ever one in the first place. Again, I am stressing that there are exceptions and the edge is finding those exceptions. Most of the time this is not the case.
In practice this is just not true. Once price has established a trend, the least likely thing it will do next is reverse. That behaviour alone provides an edge. Of course, price in a trend doesn't just continue in a straight line, but some form of continuation is the most probable early outcome at any specific point selected within the trend.
Be confident with yourself and the market !! Trade with huge quantity, and have huge stop loss !! Do not behave like a timid mouse !! ______________________________________