OMG I can't believe this fallacy still exists in trading!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by wxytrader, Oct 14, 2023.

  1. https://www.investopedia.com/investing/selling-a-losing-stock/

    "A stock that declines 50% must increase 100% to return to its original amount. Think about it in dollar terms: a stock that drops 50% from $10 to $5 ($5 / $10 = 50%) must rise by $5, or 100% ($5 ÷ $5 = 100%), just to return to the original $10 purchase price. Many investors forget about simple mathematics and take in losses that are greater than they realize due to emotional distress. They falsely believe that if a stock drops 20%, it will simply have to rise by that same percentage to break even."​

    This is complete nonsense. A stock that drops from $10 to $5 can just as easily increase back to $10. It happens all the time. The percent increase is completely irrelevant. If this was the case stocks would never channel.
     
    persistence and sridhga like this.
  2. sridhga

    sridhga


    Applying this concept to stock price may not appear to be so appropriate. However, it still applies well to a trading account.
     
  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    upload_2023-10-14_18-57-8.png upload_2023-10-14_18-57-16.jpeg upload_2023-10-14_18-57-35.jpeg
     
    rb7 likes this.
  4. No it doesn't. It's the same thing...portfolio goes down...portfolio goes up. The market probably wants you to think this so you all let go of your stocks dirt cheap. I mean think about it...if this was how it worked then why are hedge funds (and some retail) always looking to load up at the bottom of a capitulation? According to this math that would be a bad time to buy because it would likely never return to pre-drop levels lol.

    Here is an example..you can basically pick any stock to find an example because this is how all stocks move lol.

    Clipboard023.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2023
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    It's not irrelevant, as the article is not attempting to portray how "easy or difficult" it is for a stock to get back to it's original price. It is simply pointing out the factual maths.
     
  6. Businessman

    Businessman

    If it was that easy to make 100% everyone would be rich.

    In reality a stock goes down 50% it is down for a good reason. Its unlikely to back to 100% anytime soon. If it is a volatile penny stock it could also go to 0.
    There will always be some exceptions, and you will point them out but that is in hindsight.

    Even if its a blue chip stock that's down 50%, it could take 10 years or longer to get back to even, eg GE.
     
    nq whisperer and jl1575 like this.
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Try comprehending what you read and copy from investopedia (a basic beginner type site) next time. Geez.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  8. ironchef

    ironchef

    Don't dismiss @wxytrader outright.

    You picked a very bad example. Some better examples:

    META ~$375, Nov 2021, ~$90, Oct 2022, ~$325, Jul 2023

    NVDA ~$330, Nov 2021, ~$120, Oct 2022, ~$465, Jul 2023

    GOOGL, MSFT, NVO......

    Of course, as always, the devil is in the details.
     
    persistence likes this.
  9. But it has no impact on the wallet if my purchase point was at $10


     
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Now check tech stocks after the 2000 DotBomb.
     
    #10     Oct 14, 2023
    wxytrader likes this.