Official midterm results and market implications thread.

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Cuddles, Nov 3, 2018.

  1. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    Title says it all, we'll call out winners and guesstimate the market movers post election.
     
  2. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    https://thinkprogress.org/rick-perr...e-in-nevada-roiling-senate-race-c3945ba499d9/

    Oops! Perry ‘accidentally told the truth’ about dumping nuclear waste in Nevada, roiling Senate race
    Trump lies about his plan to flood Nevada with nuclear waste.

    One thing that unites Nevadans is opposition to President Donald Trump’s effort to turn the state into a huge nuclear waste dump.

    That’s why many were surprised when Trump suggested he might abandon that policy after touring the state recently with GOP Senator Dean Heller, who is in a tight reelection race against Democrat Jacky Rosen.

    But Trump’s Energy Secretary, Rick Perry, admitted on Friday the administration still supports building the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository outside of Las Vegas.

    In doing so, Perry effectively spoiled Trump’s effort to help Heller, as Jon Ralston, editor of the Nevada Independent, explained to Bloomberg: “Poor Rick Perry didn’t get the memo and accidentally told the truth.”
     
  3. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    Wallace - Nov 3, 2018 at 9:25 PM

    Democrats will take control of the US House of Representative, but no majority
    in the Senate.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephe...-ii-what-i-found-will-shock-you/#655d22943c20

    Forbes: 'Here's How Stocks Perform After Every Midterm Election Since World War II'
    Stephen McBride Contributor: Markets: The editor of RiskHedge Report.
    "Here’s what we found…
    Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections.
    US Stocks Have Climbed Higher * in the Next 12 months * After Every Single One
    Every single one. That’s 18 for 18 ! I’ll repeat it because this is so important:
    For each of the past 18 midterms, stocks have always climbed higher * a year later *.
    Always."
    my emphasis * on the 'year later' aspect, rather than it being a day-after phenomenon.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/midterm-elections-usually-give-stocks-pause-in-
    september-but-pave-way-for-later-gains-2018-09-01
    'Will midterm elections sink the stock market? Here’s what history says'.
    by William Watts Published: Sept 8, 2018 11:09 a.m. ET.

    View attachment 194208

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...78a303d/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8ea226d7ac46

    by Tory Newmyer.
    "The good news for investors, per Strategas’s Clifton: “Historically, midterm election sell-offs tend to be great buying opportunities with stocks up * one year later * every single time since 1962 and by an average of 36 percent. The S&P 500 has not declined in the 12 months following a midterm election year since 1946.” "
    my emphasis *

    View attachment 194207


    https://www.forex.com/resources/pdf/what-us-midterm-elections-mean-for-dollar-stocks.pdf
    "As the long-term EURUSD chart below shows . . . "

    View attachment 194209

    There isn't anything particularly definitive about any of my charts blaring 'SELL ! ! !', however
    since the Price rose on Friday to its Retracement HH forming what I think's an AB Reversal - see the 15min - I'm now expecting 'DOWN'.

    The above MidTerm commentaries state the rally is Later, so it won't be anything extraordinary for the ES to dump; how Low ?

    There's a 61% level on the M chart around 2412 , the 50% , a hundred points higher and lines to drop down to, January ?

    Friday's Close suggests to me a possible gap Down Opening, and possible running drop right from the Opening - I've been known to be wrong ;

    ====
     
  5. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    The direction is gonna be up.
    Markets love political gridlock, and I think moreso this time around after all the BS and uncertainty we've seen in the last 2 months. Pretty much everything negative has been dissected and beaten into glue.

    Buy the dip tomorrow and have the stones to hold overnight. There's some high growth, high margin stocks on sale right now. Chose wisely. Stay away from the insurers, pharma and biotech for now. Rolling bear. There'll be a whole new wave of uncertainty in these sectors with a divided house and a loose cannon who's loyal to no one but himself (and his optics) running the show. You can expect Trump to start pandering to the left as 2020 nears; and that means doing whatever it takes to bring down healthcare costs.

    And with regards to what I wrote above about all the negativity being out there....there might be one exception. I think perhaps we might see China using its nasty little fat step-child as a way to leverage Trump... ie we might start hearing more hawkish rhetoric out of Pyongyang. If there's one thing that'll soften Trump up in his hardcore China posturing, I suspect it would be a little egg in his face regarding his "alleged" great N. Korean accomplishments.

    My stock pick for the coming weeks... its gonna be CGC. $37.14
    Sessions is out, and Beto if he wins.... he loves that ganja.
    CGC is gonna start back up. Buy more if it drops.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2018
    constitutionman likes this.
  6. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    I cannot wait until the elections are over so people can finally stop sending fucking texts to my cell phone.
     
  7. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    :D
     
  8. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Seriously, this is getting out of hand. I'm blocking numbers like crazy. At first I sent back mean texts telling them to piss off, or I was going to vote the opposite of what they were pushing (because of their text) but they don't reply, so that's no fun. Then I've got people coming to my house in the evening, despite the sign warning them I will shoot them (joke).
     
  9. Tom B

    Tom B

    Here is some context from Wikipedia for tomorrow's election results.

    Historical record of midterm elections:

    Midterm elections are sometimes regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance.[4][5] The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections: over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election#Historical_record_of_midterm
     
  10. UsualName

    UsualName

    Two races to watch: Georgia Governor and Texas Senator.

    Georgia because Abrams went with th strategy base democrats have been advocating:!dont run as a moderate in the south, run as a liberal and build a coalition similar to Obama’s. We’ll see.

    Texas simply because how close can democrats get to making the republicans have to defend in presidential elections.

    Also, forget the polling almost all of it is underestimating turnout and that could cut into what the media is hyping about a so-called blue wave or it can turn out to be a blue tsunami. No matter what republicans are on defense.
     
    #10     Nov 5, 2018
    Cuddles likes this.