That doesn't matter. The market reacts to how it thinks the Fed will react to the number The Fed may just ignore the number knowing its fake, but the market can't be sure and will have to assume the Fed is paying attention to it.
NFP is a survey. The actual number is not known for months if not a full year later. Nonetheless still important. As for trading it, who in their right mind could determine that beforehand.
Absolutely correct. It's a mind game now. But they don't just look at the NFP number anymore. They look at the average hourly earnings by hour as well to see how that's going to be translated into inflation pressure later on cuz the biggest expense of a business is human salary. If the human salary is high and is going up, eventually the businesses are going to pass that cost on to the consumers in the prices. So the market many times will be going all over the place when the NFP number is bad but average hourly earnings by hour is good or vice versa cuz nobody knows what Fed would think in those situations. LOL
The market so far is not moving much though so it shows nobody has a clue and everybody is afraid of making a move.
I normally stay out when day traders go for a hunt, but looking at this review: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/what-is-nfp-and-how-does-it-affect-the-forex-market-202412051101 "An NFP report that shows fewer jobs created than what is expected could spur concerns about the labor market’s performance. Hence, the USD will then fall." So as an extension, if the USD should fall because of the NFP report, so it should the SPX. Looking at how this week has been benevolent for the SPX, we might see a little correction tomorrow. My 2 cts, I'll stay out anyway.
Not necessarily. All things being equal a depreciating currency more times than not is bullish for equities.
Fair point, correlation seems to be close to 40% according these guys. So you might be right. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/usdollarcorrelation.asp
Still it is good as a catalyst for trades, produce significant market reaction and I guess it is enough