driving around, I'm seeing a lot of empty strip malls and a dying mall in my area. We have a sizeable mall here that serves 6 or 7 cities around in this area. I've noticed I don't see a lot of cars parking in the parking lots. it tends to close early too. Years back, this mall had been busy late into the night. I blame on Amazon and the internet. I think next shoe to drop is commercial real estate (just like along the theme of Las Vegas). at this pace, I don't think Las Vegas is going to get its glory back.
New York Community Bancorp Inc - the other shoe already dropped on April 2004 ie about 2 decades ago. Now no more shoes to drop. ___________________________
%% I live in RF region; commercial RE looks good, but not much woke-broke stuff near here. Old school banker yelled @ me loud no/ when i asked him about an ''interest only loan'' only once LOL NOT a stock tip but RF is doing better than WFC today, maybe warren Buffet knows something i dont when he sold his WFC??
perhaps one of these chick-magnets would meet your requirement [weekly haul of $200-buck worth of groceries)
Small banks holding bad office building loans will drive a solvency crisis. Economists: 44% Of U.S. Office Loans Underwater, Threatening More Bank Failures https://www.bisnow.com/national/new...erwater-threatening-more-bank-failures-122166 Turmoil in the office market is putting a growing number of banks in peril, as loan defaults threaten billions of dollars in losses. Owners at about 44% of office properties are underwater on their loans, meaning property values are less than outstanding loan balances, according to new data from four economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research. That suggests more bank failures could be on the horizon, with a 10% default rate on all commercial real estate loans signaling a potential $80B in losses. CRE loans account for about $2.7T in aggregate bank assets, according to the research. “Our analysis, reflecting market conditions up to [the third quarter of 2023], reveals that CRE distress can induce anywhere from dozens to over 300 mainly smaller regional banks joining the ranks of banks at risk of solvency runs,” the researchers wrote. “These findings carry significant implications for financial regulation, risk supervision and the transmission of monetary policy.” The rising cost of debt means about a third of all CRE loans and the majority of office loans will have trouble refinancing when debt matures, especially since interest rates have in many cases doubled since the loans were originated. If the average CRE loan originated at an interest rate of 3.97% were to refinance today, more than 17% of all CRE loans and 24.3% of office loans would fail to pay down their debt, the researchers found. The Federal Reserve has hinted at three rate cuts in 2024, which could curtail distress, but whether that actually occurs remains a subject of debate. Until then, researchers said the exposure of banks to CRE distress puts their survival at serious risk. “Certainly, if the interest rates continue to go down this would — all else being equal — help increase property prices and that will make refinancing much easier,” economist and Columbia University professor Tomasz Piskorski told Commercial Observer. “The Fed lowering interest rates will help in two ways: It helps property values go up and will make refinance loans at maturity much easier.”
More bank failures??? For some reason the more bank failures we have the higher stocks go. Nothing of this matter will do anything to markets. It doesn't matter how many banks fail wallstreet gives zero fu$KS remember that. Yea stocks may fall for a day or 2 but once the fed bails out the bank and takes over the assets everything is all good to go ..... Have no fear about anything...commercial real estate downfall will do absolutely nothing to stocks! If anything it will only give them another historical boost higher.....
%% THAT's sure an improvement over the 1920's 30's; when had so many belly up state banks, uninsured banks[NO FDIC]+ no Fed bank regulator much . Good thing for me i don't depend on a bank overly concentrated in CRE. That's is a good pattern/ good bull uptrend shrugs off negative details; bear market sells sometimes off on even good news.