Newbie wants to learn a simple trade

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by SoCalOptionsWriter, Oct 22, 2024.

  1. Ok, let’s say I was to buy SPY and sell as it falls below the 200ma and buy when it renters the lower bounds of the 200ma and do this over and over. How and withwhom can I place this order? Who is the easiest broker to do this with?
     
  2. Peter8519

    Peter8519

    I have been doing this "thingy" for more than 15 years. I couldn't find an "effective" easy method. Here is the 2020 SPY(during covid) and you can see why 200MA is not that effective. SPY_2020.png

    Based on this SPY 40 years, buy and hold seems most effective.
    SPY_40yrs.png

    It is buying at the low with the believe that it will eventually bounce back that makes the most money. This is not easy.
     
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  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    It was a one-off. When was the last time the world economy was shut down with a government mandate for everyone to stay home, effectively shutting down global economic growth?

    Oh, never. Right.
     
  4. Peter8519

    Peter8519

    It happened in 2008 and I profited from it with STI ETF. ;)
    I could have bought more but I was overcome by fear.
    In 2020, the downtrend only lasted 2 months vs 2008 of 9 months. I waited too long and I missed the boat. :(
     

  5. Anything involving electricity is difficult and dangerous; plumbing is much better paid but also more complicated than it looks and can turn dirty; painting and decorating is a pretty simple trade, all things considered: I’d go for that one, probably.
     
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  6. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Would have done pretty well buying each and every 10, 20 and 30% reactions. Same for stocks. Look at their usual reactions from ATH and be ready to buy them once a correction hits.

    For example … BTC loves the 70/80% retracement :D Thank me later.

    upload_2024-10-25_1-18-4.png
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2024
    Wide Tailz likes this.
  7. Peter8519

    Peter8519

    Thanks.
    It's hard to teach old dog new tricks.
     
    Sekiyo likes this.
  8. Not sure if anyone answered your direct question, but you can do this easily with Tradestation and easylanguage. Probably a couple lines of code.

    Would it work (make a profit)? You can see the gallery already gave its opinion, but it's your money. :)
     
  9. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    The 200 sma Long/Short strategy for SPY.
    Buy closes above 200 sma. Sell closes below 200 sma.

    There is no commissions here for the backtest.

    upload_2024-10-25_18-42-51.png

    This is the 50sma on the weekly

    upload_2024-10-25_18-53-53.png

    This is the 10sma on the monthly

    upload_2024-10-25_18-55-27.png

    You'll likely be losing money going short.
    You'll likely underperform the Buy & Hold over time.

    This is what happens if you don't short on the monthly 10sma

    upload_2024-10-25_19-0-29.png

    Max Drawdown 20%
    You buy SPY with a 2.5x margin and beat Buy and Hold by a slight margin :D
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2024
  10. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    If you had bought 1 contract on every 10% drop from ATH,
    You would stand on 8,805.27 USD with a max drawdown of 510.01 USD over 22 trades.

    upload_2024-10-25_19-46-8.png
    upload_2024-10-25_19-46-43.png
    upload_2024-10-25_19-47-5.png
     
    #10     Oct 25, 2024
    Adam777 likes this.