https://www.newsweek.com/trump-democrats-poll-economy-2020-1456536 New Poll Has All Top Democrats Beating Trump As Voters Sour on Presidential Leadership By Asher Stockler On 8/28/19 at 12:25 PM EDT All of the Democratic Party's top 2020 contenders would defeat President Donald Trump in the general election, according to hypothetical head-to-head match-ups surveyed in a new Quinnipiac University poll. Former Vice President Joe Biden and independent Senator Bernie Sanders would handily secure a victory, according to the poll, earning 54 percent and 53 percent, respectively, of the popular vote. These margins, at 16 points and 14 points, respectively, represent some of the most decisive wins for the Democratic Party's 2020 lineup in Quinnipiac University's polls. Senator Elizabeth Warren similarly earned a wide showing of support against Trump, at 52 percent to 40 percent. Her Senate colleague Kamala Harris achieved practically the same margin, and at 49 percent, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg was leading Trump by nine points. "In hypothetical matchups between President Trump and the top five Democratic presidential candidates, one key number is 40," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow. "It's the ceiling of support for Trump, no matter the candidate. It hovers close to his job approval rating, which has stayed in a tight range since being elected." The election is 14 months away, and as the first two years of the Trump presidency have shown, the news cycle is capable of remarkable and unexpected turnarounds. But the fact that the president has held such a consistent ceiling with respect to his job approval numbers suggests that his opposition may be somewhat entrenched. A warning sign to Trump's reelection prospects is the state of the national and global economy. Voters have traditionally given the president the most credit on his economic stewardship compared to every other major issue, but an over-heating trade war and talk of an impending recession have stifled support for the president's economic agenda. "For the first time since President Trump was elected, more voters say that the national economy is getting worse than getting better, with 37 percent saying it is getting worse, 31 percent saying it is getting better, and 30 percent saying it is staying the same," a Quinnipiac University press release said. "This compares to a June 11, 2019, poll in which 23 percent of voters said that the national economy is getting worse, 39 percent said it is getting better, and 37 percent said it is staying the same." A plurality of voters also reported that they believe Trump's trade policies are hurting the nation's economy. Forty-one percent thought so, four points higher than those who supported the policies.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/24/politics/trump-approval-rating-analysis/index.html Six polls and more than 6,000 interviews show Trump's approval dropping (CNN)First things first: The theme song of the week is the ESPN's SportsCentury. Poll of the week: A new national CNN/SSRS poll finds that President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 40%. His disapproval rating is 54%. His approval rating is down from late June when it was 43%. His disapproval rating is slightly up from 52% in late June. What's the point: Over the last month and a half, a lot has happened in our national dialogue. Trump went after four congresswomen of color. Then he turned his sights on Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings, who is black. More recently, there were the shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio. And fears are growing over a potential economic slowdown. All together, it seems like recent news cycles are causing a downturn in the President's fortunes. His approval rating does seem to be sliding, which is troublesome news heading into 2020. Presidents' approval ratings have been highly correlated with their re-election margin. In the midterm elections, Trump's approval rating lined up nearly perfectly with his party's vote share in the House elections. And while the shift in our CNN poll is not statistically significant given the margin of error of +/- 4 points, it's not the only poll to show that Trump's approval rating is down. Take a look at these other probability-based polls that meet CNN's standards and were completed over the last two weeks. AP-NORC puts the President's approval rating at 36%, down from 38%. Fox News gave Trump a 43% approval rating, a decrease from 46%. Gallup shows Trump's approval rating at 41%, down from 42% in late July and 44% in early July. Monmouth University pegs Trump's approval rating at 40%, down from 41%. NBC News/Wall Street Journal found Trump had an approval rating of 43% among all adults, a decrease of 2 points from 45% in July among registered voters and 1 point from 44% in their last poll that surveyed all adults in June. None of these poll results individually are all that convincing that Trump's approval rating has declined. Together, however, they make a fairly strong case. Adding in the CNN poll, Trump has an average decline of 2 points in his approval rating. That may not seem like a lot, but keep in mind these polls put together have a sample size of more than 6,000 people. The chances that all of these polls have Trump's approval down, even by a mere 2 points, is tiny. Normally, a 2-point drop in a president's approval rating would not be a big deal. For this president, however, a 2-point movement is a bigger deal than usual. Trump's approval rating has been unusually stable. Any sort of movement is noteworthy with him. According to Gallup, no president has had as narrow a range (35%-46%) of approval ratings than Trump. Trump's still within that range, though now more toward the middle than the upper part of that range as he had been earlier in the year. Trump needs to be able to break out of the narrow range in order to make himself a favorite for reelection. No president has won an additional term with an approval rating as low as Trump's is currently. The further Trump's approval rating strays from his disapproval rating, the harder he makes it for himself to win in 2020.
https://www.axios.com/trump-approva...tes-d6ffffe7-07e2-4398-90d6-14c1f97bf62c.html Trump's net approval rating sinks in every battleground state Change in Trump's net approval rating in select states = Won by Trump in 2016. Net approval is approval rate minus disapproval rate. July 2019 Jan. 2017 President Trump's net approval rating has plunged in every key battleground state since taking office in January 2017, according to Morning Consult's tracking poll. Why it matters: These are the states that Republicans and Democrats are vying for in 2020 and where, as of now, the campaigns think the presidential election will be decided, according to conversations with several Trump and Democratic campaign staffers. In addition to the key purple states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that both sides recognize as targets, the Trump campaign has its sights set on Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico, all states Trump lost in 2016, several campaign officials said. "We are trying to actively expand the map — aggressively," one official said. "These 4 states in particular are all areas [Trump campaign manager Brad] Parscale is set on winning." The official added that the campaign, which is planning to beef up its communications and rapid response team with additional hires before the end of the year, will soon be flooding these states with stories that don’t get a lot of attention at the national level — such as Trump's work on opioids and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal. "President Trump will again win the states he carried in 2016, and we believe there are a number that he can add to his column in 2020," said Tim Murtaugh, director of communications for the campaign. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping they can pick up Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas and Georgia, per talks with campaign aides and Democratic strategists. "The midterms were a strong indicator of the Dem energy in these states, particularly in Arizona, Florida and Texas, and set the groundwork for us to flip them," one Democraticstrategist said. Note, however, that Trump still has a positive approval rating in Texas and Georgia, even though it's smaller than it used to be. "We dream that the Democrats think they can get Texas. It's a total fantasy," one Trump campaign official said. A Trump campaign adviser also conceded that Arizona in particular will be tough for Trump to hold onto, but pushed back on putting too much stock in the 2018 election results: "Midterms don’t mean s---. It's a midterm turnout versus a general election — totally different." Several aides on both sides of the aisle agree that it's far too early to assume either side has any of these states in the bag and that polls can only tell you so much this far out. The bottom line: Both Republican and Democratic campaign aides privately acknowledge that they expect the election to be razor-thin in many of these states, just as it was in 2016. However, the Trump campaign is betting on the Republican National Committee's data prowess and the size of the Democratic field to give them the upper hand, even with Trump's approval rating underwater in nearly every key state. Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee's director of battleground state communications, David Bergstein, tells Axios that the Trump campaign "doesn't have a realistic argument about their map," noting that a Republican hasn't won in many of the states the campaign is targeting in over a decade. "Democrats are taking nothing for granted," Bergstein said.
Democrats won the Senate races in Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Nevada,Virginia ,Minnesota ,Arizona and Ohio in 2018.They only lost Texas by 2.5 points and The GA Governors race by 1.4 points.Far more than Calinoisyork hates Trump.
I still find it suspect any poll that shows Bernie beating Trump by double digits. Bernie has ideas that scare all GOP and many factions of the Dem party so he would never get national support. If he becomes the nomination, Trump gets the win and Dems will just focus on getting more seats in House and Senate to stalemate things until 2024.
I think the double digits are a bit off but with many polls consistently showing Sanders beating Trump and showing Sanders being top 3 for the nomination I think he could beat Trump.He has to make the right VP pick imo.With the support Warren is getting I don't think the far left positions Warren and Sanders are pushing are as scary to some democrats as they used to be,especially with Trump being the alternative.
None of the Dem candidates has yet to experience hundreds of millions of dollars worth of negative campaign ads focused against them. I am not saying Trump is not vulnerable, but Sanders would be absolutely destroyed in a general election against Trump. If Warren can moderate a bit, I think she has a shot at going all the way.
I would disagree.I don't think Sanders beats Trump by double digits but he would not be destroyed and he beats Trump imo.