Nevada has a large hispanic population and Sanders has been actively courting Hispanic Democrats since his loss to Clinton in 2016. The Sanders people did some math and felt like if Sanders had higher Hispanic support he could have won the dem nomination in 2016. Anyway, in 2020 we are about to find out If Sanders has a true coalition or if he stalls out at ~26ish percent. Also, Biden needs to show up here. Fourth place ain’t going to cut it. Worst he can do is a very strong third. He has to show he has some support among whites and Hispanics. He has to be able to compete in a state like Nevada if he wants to at least appear viable. I’m not feeling hopeful for Joe. So: 1. Sanders (<26%) 2. Biden (>20%) 3. Warren (>15%)
You got Pokey but no Booty? I thought we pretty much stuck a fork in Pokey. I gotta think Booty will make the top 3.
Bernie for the win Pete shows well in 2nd Amy and Warren nose to nose for 3rd Biden is dead, just not buried yet. That will happen when S.C. doesn't go his way.
My thinking is a dead cat bounce for Warren. She has to be pushing to get something on the board. Her Waterloo will be South Carolina. Buttigieg is untested outside of high-high white states. I would be interested to see if he makes inroads with lower income whites and minorities.
As I have said before, I don't see any pathway for BootyBoy outta Iowa and NH despite all the hype in those two whitey-tighty states. If there is a pathway for him, well he is in luck then because there are a bunch or primaries coming right up so he can show us. I don't see him in the top three but if he made third that would that would still leave me flaccid. No pathway out of whitey-tighty land for Booty. Warren's fate is dependent on the condition of Bernie's ticker at this point and/or whether the dnc is able to kill Bernie off or the general public getting panicky about the fact that Trump has one the day that Bernie is nominated. Not sure about this week, but a couple weeks ago she was still running second in CA so she still has to be dealt with in some big delegate states. Probably the whole Bloomberg thing and another week of Bernie surge have lowered her numbers there and everyone else too by this week. I dont see where Bernie's upside is though. Every candidates numbers are shiite because they are spread out across so many candidates. You would have to get mainstream dems to start going full-AOC to move his numbers much higher. Keep that ticker going Bernie. Known knowns and known unknowns and unknown unknowns are going to be big factors in this race.
There are pundits- dems at that- who argue that caucus systems are basically voter suppression systems. You know, it can take you 3-4 hours to get through that whole caucus process on primary election night. Grouping, regrouping. Persuading, being persuaded and then voting again. You know, that's a lot when you have been working down at the machine shop all day and you have kids at home that need care while you and the wife are out dicking around with some caucus system where they can't even tally the votes in the end anyway. Something to be said for that argument.
Turnout in Iowa was low and New Hampshire was high. I think the Iowa numbers had more to do with Trump’s popularity there and NH Trump’s unpopularity. Lots of democrats defected in Iowa and Iowa is out of play for 2020. New Hampshire shows democrats are pumped up there and Trump has uphill fight there.