Does anybody did any research on trading systems where you base your entry on time only expecting a move to start completely disregarding price action. Something like in this blog post? http://bowgett.com/Blog/post/why-it-is-enough-to-know-when-eur-is-going-to-move I would like to do a little bit more research on this approach
I recommend you stop reading that blog asap... it will cost you a fortune....The dude is straight up rolling the dice, and after 10 rolls he just so happened to be positive.... Why would you ignore the price action data that is readily available to you? There are no shortcuts... you've got to do the work if you want to make the money. There is seasonality to certain markets ... but blindly buying/selling based upon the time of day/season is gambling, at best. Go to the casino, atleast you'll get a "free" drink out of the deal.
You could flip a coin. At least one trading psychologist uses that method to teach trade management. It sounds similar, and reportedly is profitable over a series of trades with proper techniques
If I knew that every day at a specific time the Euro was going to move 30 ticks I would sit my ass in front of the screen and watch the order flow. Why would you "flip a coin" guessing which way it is going to go? Why let it go 12 ticks (150.00) against you?
Because (U.S.) equity markets take long time frames to disseminate fundamental, monetary, and economic information, and economic growth and recess has a generally upward trajectory, there have been quantifiable repeatable occurrences distilled from price based time series that have produced statistically significant positive outcomes, over 90 years. In building our model, we culled these variables and assembled them into a "sequentially" signaled model. Historically, 80% of the entry and exit dates generated were/are static and "fixed". The other 20% were derived from signaling triggered via objective, mathematically based indicators with definitive rules set using "weekly" time frames ( and usually occurring in the first half of years ). This innovation : 1) alleviates uncertainty by removing "ambiguousness" of positional buy and sell entries that exist in many investment strategies ( ambiguous = uncertainty ) 2) provides us "preknowledge" of when the transaction(s) will occur; which removes as much uncertainty from the investment process as possible which 3) builds our confidence and mental resources for when the transaction date finally occurs. Difficult to say if static or fixed date stratgies can be applied to currency pairs ....
There's been a lot of research done on the subject and being non-conventional, there probably wont be a lot of information shared. Especially since there are very profitable strategies based on "cycles." Most traders would combine the approach with a signal. IAS_LLC isnt oviously someone who doesnt know much about this particular area so id take what he says with a grain of salt.
Actually, you can find cycles even on the intraday charts. They're particularly useful when coupled with measured moves.
I use time entries almost exclusively when I am adding to positions. Typically once a day timed at a time when the days action is mostly done. Not so good for complete exits (since then the market has given you more than you were asking for or at least quicker than you were expecting, and time is money.)