Naz may have some short term support around 13k. That will also wipe out all of 2021 gains. However, I dont think thats the end.
Here is a forecast for the NDX100 if this turns into a brutal bear. Bubbles revert back to where they began. Just a wild guess, who knows? In big bear markets often you see a retrace back to a multi decade trend line. Just having fun here - I hope I am dead wrong - go bulls!
I'd like to see NQ drop from 7 digits to 6. elderly people like me have a problem seeing those numerous digits. Ideally, it should be 4. Actually, CME can simply remove the 2 decimal places as NQ tick size is far too small.
The scenario I presented would be an 89% drop, -7% more than the dot com bear. Many legends of trading think this bubble is larger then what we had in the dot com era. Old traders that have been through brutal bears know just how bad things can get - which is when we tend to lean more on the short side.
It seems far fetched but the Fibonacci Retrace (from the March 2019 low of 6630) brings it back to the pre-covid high around 10K. Even this seems unlikely. A drop 6000 points from the top = 37% move.
I hope you're dead right but if my calculations are correct, that would result in a QQQ dividend yield of 20%!!! Party time!
Important to remember though, any investor who simply bought US indexes and held for decades was fine. OP however managed to lose everything he owned trading on his ideas. Your choice who you should listen to. If you fear Nasdaq something like SPX or TSX is more diversified and less volatile long term.