I decided to start my own trading journal for the main trading pairs and monitor the market situation and form my strategy. I often test different methods of technical and candlestick analysis and want to try to analyze the market situation and predict the development of events. With real trading, things do not always go well. But I am still learning. I think that I need to test my strategy on a demo account. And I want to be able to follow ideas, improve my strategies, avoid repeating mistakes. I prefer to analyze trading pairs EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY
Hello everyone! I would like to consider the situation on the USDCHF pair. After a sharp and strong decline, which began on 04/02/2025 after Trump’s announcement about tariffs, the price is now consolidating in a horizontal range or flat formed on the H1 timeframe. The upper boundary of this range is the resistance level of 0.8620, the lower boundary is the support level of 0.8478. After another test of the upper boundary of the range and its false breakout, I am considering sales within this flat to its lower boundary, located at the support level of 0.8478. Only in the case of a true breakout with the price fixing below this level will I consider further sales.
Aloha @Jeka, Welcome to ET. I agree with you trading range identification. What will you use to identify a true of false breakout?
Hi! To determine a true breakout, I wait for the price to consolidate below/above the broken level and retest this level in the direction of the breakout with the renewal of the low/high. there's a greater chance of not returning to this range.
It is clear that the USDCHF price has left the horizontal range, breaking through its lower boundary of the range. It is also clear that there was a retest of the broken side with a rebound from it downwards, but if we look at M30. It seems to me that there is an increased chance of continuing the bearish movement for this pair. Does anyone else think so?
Nope. I think FX is incredibly difficult, and taxing on your health. So stop the bullshit? You walked into the wrong bar...
Swiss franc futures (invert it for spot forex) chart. You missed entering earlier. The time to enter was 3 Apr 20225 when President Trump made a very major tariff announcement. You will find similar pattern in other currencies (Eur, gbp ....) It is unwise to enter late.
Thanks for the reply, Jek Is this arrow the retest? This is how I see it possibly playing out. Looks like a false BO to me. Hit trendlines 1, then 2, then gap fill (3). If we're going to BO the topside, hit top of climax (4), measured move up based on the size of the climax (5), then measured move the width of the trading range (6). Otherwise, turnaround at 3 and head south.
Hi, interesting thought. But on the H1 timeframe, a sloping bearish channel has formed. The price is currently moving in it. Therefore, I don't see any prerequisites for growth yet. Most likely, the price'll fall to the lower border of this channel and may fall further. I most likely agree with maxinger- the south is more interesting