Hey guys, just thought it would be cool to post my trades and to possibly receive feedback from you guys. I understand the theory behind the volatility and implied volatility (standard deviations etc), however I don't really have a formula to predict vol (would like to know what you recommend for readings so I can learn). I understand the general effects of vol on price and some of the greeks. I have general knowledge of it and what some of them do, however, considering that these are not constant values and change daily, I find it hard to rely on them as a predictor, unless you can accurately predict the direction they're heading in. I also understand some of the basic strategies. Anyway my trades for february are as follows: *note* I used implied volatility with the standard deviation formula to pick my strikes, when I first placed the trades. Some I had to convert into other trades. I also pick my credit spreads on the basis that the IV percentile is around 40% or higher. Total margin requirement: $2310 -2 BBRY feb 28 10.00 Put +0.1 +4 BBRY feb 28 10.5 Call -0.35 -4 BBRY feb 28 11.00 Call +0.07 -2 BBRY feb 28 9.00 Put +0.03 net loss: -0.86 *thinking of exercising the 10.5 contract, giving me a cost basis of 10.71. Then turning it into a covered call at strike 12.00 @$0.50. Reducing cost basis to $10.2 +1 BBRY jun 21 10.00 Call -1.83 -1 BBRY jun 21 12.00 Call +.98 net debit: 0.90 potential profit: $110. **bullish on blackberry so i figured a bull call spread would work. (is there a way to do a bull call credit spread?) I've been looking and I cant seem to find one. +1 BBRY jun 21 7.00 Put -0.28 -1 BBRY jun 21 8.00 Put +0.52 net credit: $0.24 **did this to supplement the bull call spread. -2 BBRY mar 21 13.00 Call +0.06 -2 BBRY mar 21 14.00 Call +0.07 net credit: 0.13 **this was 1.5-2STD move at the time. From what I remember. -1 BKS mar 21 14.00 Put +0.13 -1 BKS mar 21 23.00 Call + 0.14 **naked strangle, around 1 STD OTM ( -1 GRPN mar 21 11.00 Call +0.04 -1 GRPN Mar 21 6.00 Put +0.04 net credit: 0.08 naked strangle, at least 1 STD OTM near a support/resistance level. +9 IAG Jan 15 5.00 Call -1.08 (this was a mistake of mine) Trying to change this to a synthetic covered call. Kind of hard. +1 VIX JUL 14.00 Put -0.61 -1 VIX JUL 15.00 Put+ 1.08 net credit: 0.47 **Bullish on the VIX looking to put a bull credit spread of some sort. If possible. Anyway these are my trades! I will be posting every month.
A Bull Call is a debit spread. A Bull Put is a credit spread. Done the same way, at the same strikes. Market education is expensive, Paper Trade.
From the vix chart, it seems that every 3-4 months it spikes up. So I wanted to give myself that time frame for it to reach that goal. The tight spread is because I have a smaller account so i want to limit my losses to very minimal. Thanks for the bull put bull call explanation. Updates: Closed ALL BBRY Feb 28 positions: +$10 profit. minor gain. - rolled to BBRY March 28 -4 BBRY March 28 10 @ +1.11 +4 BBRY March 28 9 @-1.81 -potential profit is $27. Including the loss from the roll over. *looking to put on bull put spread.
What are your commissions? So many small trades the commission might be too much percentage-wise to make winning profitable enough.
$1. I use interactivebrokers, not too fond of the platform, but I'm managing with it. Serves me well especially with options trading since you're supposed to stay small on position size.
Thanks for the info. Nah, I'm good trading with my capital. I'm pretty confident with my trading and forecasting. IMO Paper trading doesn't give you real experience and the real experience is what's important. For example, if you're trading a 50k paper trading account with no real risk, you'll be more bold and won't think twice about your positions. Trading with a real account at least gives you that risk and you'll think twice about your trades. Plus, I've traded stocks for the last 8 years and been somewhat successful. Some losses some gains, overall I'm up. Learned a lot too (biggest loss was on RIM). Options I've been doing for the past six months and learned quickly the importance of risk management lol. For example, I put on a naked strangle trade on BKS not for any reason, just because. and It bit me in the ass.
Price: $10.50 -1 BBRY Mar 28 8.00 PUT +0.17 approx 70% chance of success -1 BBRY Mar 28 14.00 Call +0.11 approx 90% chance of success net credit: +0.28 combined probability of success: approximately 63% . IV: 79. 58% percentile 52w Max IV: 99 52w Min IV: 36 1STD Move: 2.86 DTE:30 Contingency plan: roll position if necessary. will scale up if vol expands.