Hello everyone, hope you’re all well! I’m excited to start journaling my trades for the first time so that I can receive feedback and advice on how to improve. I know there’s always room for growth, and I’d appreciate any insights you may have. Pair: GBP/USD Position: Short Sell US Economy In my view, the U.S. economy is strong. Inflation is at 2.4%, down slightly from 2.5%, which is just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. With inflation on a stable path, I believe the Fed will likely hold rates steady or maintain a hawkish stance without additional rate hikes. Consumer confidence also saw a slight uptick to 70.5, reflecting optimism in the economy. Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI showed solid expansion at 54.9, up from 51.5, while Manufacturing PMI remains below 50, indicating contraction in that sector. Overall, I see the U.S. economy as stable with a strong services sector and a tightening Fed, even as manufacturing lags. Also, Trump winning the election causes strength in the dollar as his policies are seen as being more inflationary than Kamala’s, therefore there is less need for rate cuts. UK Economy I view the UK economy as relatively weak. Inflation has dropped to 1.7% from 2.2%, indicating deflation, and with inflation near or below the 2% target, the Bank of England is unlikely to feel pressured to raise rates soon. The money supply increased marginally, from 3.02 million to 3.04 million, which I think is too small a change to meaningfully impact spending or economic activity. Additionally, consumer confidence has slipped, reflecting some pessimism about the UK economy. Services PMI remains in expansion territory at 51.5, though it’s down slightly from 52.3; I see this as a minor dip that doesn’t suggest significant weakness in services. However, the manufacturing PMI has dropped below 50 to 49, down from 51.5, signalling contraction and a slowdown in manufacturing. USD Headlines . “Fed’s Kashkari: Fed wants to have confidence inflation will go all the way back to 2%” - The Fed are cautious about cutting interest rates which may cause USD strength to last longer as investors expect higher us yields. . “Moody’s says ‘the risks to US fiscal strength have increased’” - Moody’s is worried about how the U.S. is handling its money and debt. They think there could be problems with the country’s finances. However, despite this sounding bad, a lot of people have faith that the U.S. dollar will be strong because they think the U.S. economy is stable. GBP Headlines Headline - “ECB’s Holzmann sees no reason not to cut rates in December” - The European Central Bank could lower interest rates in December, which could mean slower economic growth in Europe. This could make the British pound weaker compared to stronger currencies like the U.S. dollar. Headline - “EUR/USD forecast: Trump policies likely to be watered down, USD won’t sustain its strength” - This suggests the U.S. dollar might not stay as strong because of changes in U.S. policies. Since the British pound often moves in a similar way to the euro, any problems with the euro could make the pound weaker too. Technical analysis A bearish engulfing candle formed on the daily timeframe and I took a short trade trade. Also majority of traders who are trading GBP/USD are long so I’m taking a short to go against the majority because 90% of traders fail. 76% of traders are long and 24% short on GBP/USD. If anyone can give tips on how I can improve my trading and my journaling that will be much appreciated as I am still learning. Have a great day everyone.
this is bull shit because you do not know the time frame of the long traders or the short traders. and in forex there is no central exchange so how do you the long and short statistics? you may only know your brokers' clients statistics the bearish engulfing is in range and so is not valid but it is also a rejection the ema so a reasonable trade
Notice that you have to wait for almost a year just to have a signal to short it in early Nov 2024. And that might not give you a healthy reward-risk ratio. And if you miss that signal, you will probably starve to death unless you have other source of income. And to determine whether you have a good trading strategy, you will only know a few decades later. That is the problem with many professional writers who write about using Daily Charts to trade. They are not aware we can hardly live beyond 100 years.
Hi Padutrader, yes you are right I spoke to some traders today and they said its stupid. I got this sentiment view from a website called myfxbook where it shows how much percent of traders are long and short. But some traders told me that this data is not reliable. Therefore, from now on I wont rely on this market sentiment data as it’s data from a small sample only. Padutrader, do you have any advice on how to be good on technical analysis? Im not confident in my technical analysis, sometimes I think I'm keeping it too simple by just waiting for bullish or bearish engulfing candles. Do you have any books I can read that can possibly help me get good at technical analysis by any chance? Because all I do is wait for a engulfing candle I actually don't use the EMAS they are just there because I was told to put it on by others. Thank you for responding too my post as well.
Hi Maxinger, how are you? Thank you for responding too my post. The reason why I use a daily chart is because I met a trader who was apparently making tons of money trading forex and people called him a fundamental expert. He said that real professional traders swing trade with higher timeframes, as its less stressful and you make more money because you will make better trading decisions, and using lower timeframe causes overtrading and more stress. He also said use higher timeframes, because it aligns better with the fundamental analysis and economics. That's why I am scared to use lower timeframes, because I hear it can cause overtrading and lead to less smart decisions. And when using fundamental analysis and global macro strategy, higher time frames will be more effective. Maxinger can I ask you as well, could you possibly give any tips on how I can improve my technical analysis. Any books I can read that can help me. Thank you Maxinger again and have a great day.
You're such a TA asshole. FA is going to destroy you, you dumbass. Yes, I am trolling you, because you're such a dipshit.
Good stuff mate! Keep putting the work in! Success loves preparation. @wxytrader chime in and help this guy with with his 2026 Lambo will ya!? @Niczg123 hes a little abrasive but his communication style is slowly improving.He can show you a few different ways to look at things.Might be a good value add while you are putting the work in.