Governor Beshear, I'm writing this email to you, because I believe you are best positioned to take on Donald Trump in November. I have no ties to Kentucky, but I’m impressed by your resume. I have a M.S. in Math and as a professional trader, I look at probabilities for a living. I put my money where my mouth is and bet on elections when I feel there's an edge (and I can get a quick return). I am not a blind partisan and will bet based on who I think is going to win, not who I think is better for the country. I like to think I have a really good feel for what numbers matter and which ones ultimately don't. Based on recent elections, whoever wins this election will likely have to win the popular vote by 3-5 points in order to win the Electoral College and the presidency. In 2020 Biden's margin of victory was 4.46% in the popular vote. However, the margin of victory for the presidency was closer to .63%, because that was the margin of victory in WI. If Biden did .63% worse across the board, he would have lost WI, AZ, and GA, giving Trump enough states to win the Electoral College. This means Biden needed to be at least +3.83% better than Trump on Election Day (if he lost support equally among all the states). Hillary Clinton was up by 2.1% in the popular vote in 2016 and lost PA by .72%. If she was .72% better across the board, she would have won both MI and PA, thus securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. That would have put her needed margin at 2.82% (if support rose equally across the board). However, Biden isn't currently up the 3-5 points he needs to be. Instead, he's consistently down 0-2 points according to the averages. He has been for months with little sign of movement. After the debate, the averages are moving more in Trump’s favor. What President Biden demonstrated last Thursday night is what many of us had feared and expected. Just the way he speaks demonstrates a massive decline from as recently as 2022. It’s remarkably different from when he was campaigning in 2020. The fact that he wouldn't do the Super Bowl interview was telling to a lot of us who aren’t necessarily connected to Washington insiders. The Super Bowl was on CBS (not FOX) and it’s generally a softball interview. He went into the debate down in the polls and then 67% of respondents said Trump won the debate. The Biden camp has had many excuses since: the cold (colds don't put people in that state), overseas travel (he got back to the States 12 days before the debate and was locked down at Camp David preparing for a whole week), and they overprepared him (this might be the dumbest one of all). As you can see, I'm not buying this gaslighting. Anybody on the fence of not voting for Biden is not buying this gaslighting either. It likely makes them more willing to stay home or vote third party in disgust (even knowing that it helps Trump). It's clear that the jig is up and Biden has got to go. Now, who do we replace him with? The obvious choice on paper would be Kamala Harris. However, she is a deeply unpopular VP who doesn't appeal to the American people. I and many others feel she was selected for VP for purely identity politics reasons. More importantly, her approval ratings are even worse than Biden's. I do not feel like she can turn it around and even if there's a chance she could, I feel that there are numerous safer options. Gavin Newsom is probably the second name most mentioned. In my opinion, that is another terrible choice. First of all, California has a lot of problems right now. Over 40% of homeless Americans live in that state. Anybody who has visited CA has seen these problems on full display, because it's most noticeable in the two most visited cities (LA and San Francisco). Trump will be able to tear his record apart in terms of homelessness, housing corruption, taxes, people voting with their feet (more Americans are leaving CA than staying), and illegal immigration. The campaign would essentially be, don’t turn America into California and I believe it would be effective. Newsom also has a temperament that is perceived as smug, slick, and elitist. That will not play well in Middle America. While there are other candidates I feel could win (Whitmer, Booker, Cooper to name a few), I believe you are best positioned to win. You won a close election and then won re-election by 5 points in the state of KY. With the decline of split-ticket voting, this is pretty remarkable in a state that went +26 for Trump in 2020. And you did it all while sticking up for abortion rights (maybe the most important litmus test for Democrats). I believe this shows that you have the ability to bring moderates and open-minded voters together unlike any other potential candidate. Now, you will be criticized for your lack of name ID and limited poll numbers H2H against Trump. We both know that these are poor arguments. Your poll numbers against Trump are meaningless, because of your lack of name ID. Trump’s number actually dropped to 40% against you, because they have no clue who you are. 40% is likely his floor against any Democrat. If you become the nominee your name ID will skyrocket. In 3 months, everybody will know who you are so I don’t see how name ID is an issue. Another criticism is that you’re not battletested on the national stage. Given that you won twice statewide in KY, I believe you are battletested enough. We saw Kamala Harris on a national stage and she was forced to drop out before the primaries. I don’t see how this helps her. Another criticism is if it’s not Kamala Harris or another black candidate, it will cause black voters to stay home. This is probably the best argument against you, but I don’t believe it’s true. Whatever small percentage of black voters stay home will pale in comparison to the number of independents you can win over. You will also have 3 months to make your case why you are the best candidate for black voters and why Donald Trump is not. The key attribute you have is your personality. Your humble, but confident personality makes you likeable in crucial states such as PA, MI, WI, NC, and GA. While I don’t believe your home state of KY would be winnable against Trump, I do think OH and IA can be in place. So yes…Governor Beshear, please run for President and beat Donald Trump! Thank you, Kevin Gilroy
The political careers of centrists Joe Biden,Kamala Harris,Kyrsten Sinema,Joe Manchin and Jon Tester are coming to an end in 2024.Not sure someone to the right of them would have been a strong candidate for President as a Democrat.