Hi, I noticed the Superturtle results, and I have been trading the "old" Turtle method for a while but not effectively because I don't have enough capital to cover all the markets. Are any of your other methods more suitable for a small ($12K) account, until I can afford the others? I have read of a number of instances where someone has turned my account size into $100K in one year (not counting Larry W.'s $1M; that's just insane). Certainly, some have just been lucky, but I'd rather not count on that. Thanks,
Unfortunately back in the mid 1990's, I had a marketing company market my products. It was when I just started in this business. Others big names also used them, but we all stopped doing future projects with these people because of these issues. We had problems with ads which were not approved running. In terms of this industry there is so much noise you need a little hype , that why I still use the Einstein of WallStreet in some marketing. I have developed many new trading methods over the years which were major breakthroughs. I was the first to build and release to the public intermarket based trading systems and I developed the concept of adaptive channel breakout using cycle analysis just for starters. I know many CTA who are customers who have based their trading methods on things in my books and articles and make there living managing from 5-100 million dollars using them. Think about this, I have methods I have developed over ten years ago which still work, for example trading bonds using silver was something I developed back in the mid 1990's and still works today. Past results of my customers show that if you work hard ,can deal with the psychology of following your rules and have enough capitol to make a living from trading, you can make a living using the research I have done and published over the years.
Methods you developed over ten years ago include curve fitted monstrosities like Taylor Bond Pro http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=11740&highlight=taylor#11740 which uses different rules for different days of the week. Congratulations Einstein.
Don't forget the I-Master bait-n-switch. If your curve-fitted system fails to work after a few months, just optimize it further and call it I-Master Plus. And don't forget to charge another fee for it too. http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=611
I don't have I-Master but understand that it did well for a period and then went into a drawdown. That is not, in itself, indicative of curve fitting. And anyway, any System is a technical curve fit. In fact, a healthy (non-over-optimized) system should take drawdowns periodically. A drawdown, in itself, means very little. I've seen a few plausible systems and generally their exit strategies are vulnerable to drawdown. if you have used commercial systems without first coming to terms with that then you can't complain. The lack of market volatility in the last few years has expose the money management weaknesses of many systems, especially trend followers. So, I'd suggest the market has been the "bait-n-snatch" you refer to. And regardig yours and others attacks here against Murray, I'd argue that while you "could" be right the general respect with which Murray is received on these furms and elsewhere says otherwise. The signal-to-noise ratio of what the guy puts out there is, IMO, unusually high. if average Joes like us can't make good use of it then that's our problem, not his. Thx D
I appreciate Murray Ruggiero's postings here on elitetrader.com. I write computer programs to analyze the behavior of prices and model trading systems. I find my conclusions to be consistent with Murray Ruggiero's writings. Every method that I test shows losing streaks sometimes. It does not surprise me that methods that perform well one year show poor results another year. No one can predict the future. I have no idea if I will show a profit or loss five years from now. I suspect publishing a book requires an investment. Someone has to pay for printing, distribution and marketing expenses. I suspect the target purchaser is likely to be a newer and less skilled trader. The way to sell a book is to sell it. The selling process might not be glamorous but sales results are measured in dollars not glamour. Murray Ruggiero, I hope you continue to share your thoughts and ideas with us here are elitetrader.com.
Seems like there should be long-term track records on all of his other systems. Does anybody know where we can review independently verified performance of the systems?
They track a lot of systems here: http://www.futurestruth.com/ Maybe they can supply the info you need and you can come back and tell us. JJ