What happened to MSTR? It can't even reclaim its previous highs at these levels...its barely moving relative to bitcoin like it used to before dilution. Concerned MSTY owners want to know lol. @johnarb I expected to see you gloating about some call leaps but they may still be way otm even after this rally.
Back when it was the only “Bitcoin stock,” MSTR exploded with every BTC move. Now every desperate small-cap is issuing shares to buy crypto, and spot ETFs offer cleaner, direct exposure. More competition = less demand = lower premium. Take SBET — it’s trading at a 240% premium to its Ethereum holdings. There are now countless ways for investors to overpay for crypto exposure instead of just buying the asset 1:1. This ends badly.
I’m just trading options on IBIT this cycle - MSTR is a good hold for now but the premium is definitely compressing
Yeah — but they also did a 12-for-1 reverse split, so it really just moved from $3.33 to $11.67 in pre-split terms.
MSTR is at its highest in its last 8 months, what seems to be the problem? Pretty much doubled in the last 3 months.
When bitcoin first broke 100k MSTR was at ath $542...now with bitcoin at 118k its only at $449...that's the problem. Rally #1: BTC $52K → $100K Metric Value BTC Gain +92.3% MSTR Gain +270.4% MSTR Price Move $135 → $500 BTC Price Move $52K → $100K MSTR/BTC Sensitivity 2.93x Rally #2: BTC $75K → $118K Metric Value BTC Gain +57.3% MSTR Gain +92.8% MSTR Price Move $235 → $453 BTC Price Move $75K → $118K MSTR/BTC Sensitivity 1.62x Takeaway: Metric Rally #1 Rally #2 Change BTC Gain 92.3% 57.3% ↓ Slower BTC move MSTR Gain 270.4% 92.8% ↓ Much smaller move Sensitivity (MSTR/BTC) 2.93x 1.62x Down 45%
? Scenario 1: All in MSTY Buy: $100,000 ÷ $20.09 = 4,978 shares Now: $22.85 → Value = 4,978 × $22.85 = $113,788.30 Gain: +$13,788.30 Dividends: 4,978 × $1.24 = $6,172.72 Total Return: +$19,961.02 Scenario 2: $100K Split IBIT: $33.3K → 761 shares @ $43.80 → now $67.31 Gain: +$17,926.11 MSTR (short): short 137 shares @ $243 → now $453.27 Loss: - $28,938.99 MSTY: $33.3K ÷ $20.09 = 1,658 shares Now: 1,658 × $22.85 = $37,898.30 Gain: +$4,598.30 Dividends: 1,658 × $1.24 = $2,055.92 Net P&L: Gain: $17,926.11 + $4,598.30 + $2,055.92 = $24,580.33 Loss: -$28,938.99 Total Return: - $4,358.66 Conclusion: All MSTY: +$19,961.02 Blend: - $4,358.66 MSTY outperformed blend by: +$24,319.68
You mean ages ago? And there was an obvious short squeeze going on. The last 7-8 months of MSTR's movements have been according to BTC's movement, so nothing to cry for.