Hmm... I'm in Florida. When they say that Miami/Dade is going red in early + mail-in voting then its reasonable to wonder if something anomalous is happening. Yes obviously Florida is "in the bag" but you don't really EVER see Miami/Dade voting red. Just a few years ago Andrew Gillum nearly won the Governor's office and it was really close. That has left me skeptical that Florida has really flipped but its hard to deny if Miami/Dade actually early-voting is like that. It means something. Cubans? Its plausible.
Polymarket has Trump with only 63% chance of winning? That's not that high. That implies Harris would win 37 out of 100 Monte Carlo simulations. Meh.