In your opinion, what would be the most important thing to optimize? I'm using Ninjatrader Genetic Optimizer Total Net Profit Profit Factor or gross profits minus gross losses Average Profit per trade Max % profitable Max Sharp ratio Minimize drawdown (This is not an issue with my strategy) I personally have been using PF or total net profit
Fancy name for a random permutation process. Why do you need to optimize? My rule is that all factors you listed should stay more or less unchanged as a function of system parameters, otherwise you are curve-fitting to specific market conditions.
Agree and disagree, most parameters seem to be specific to a particular market period, however, some are not.
Good Advice! But maybe for beginners can fit better the CAR/MDD (Compounded Annual Return / Maximal Drawdown). This ratio show the best qualities of an equity curve: slope and risk reward ratio, also readeable as average time to recover its maximum historical loss (expressed in fraction of year). Apart from this, be aware that there's no indicator that you can maximize for cut out the unavoidable overfitting that affects all optimized systems... For this purpose it should be better to proceed with sensitivity analisys of optimization results and testing the system's multimarket ability . My 2cent..
Is there a way to determine the degree of curve fitting in a sytem? Also, what are the odds that my systems passes the out-of-sample test simply by random chance?
I wouldn't bother optimising anything it is irrelevant, just visually look at the indicator on the chart and adjust the settings to suit, stop being so anal about it there is no need for all that crap
The whole point of trading is to make money. Therefore the logical optimization is either total net profit or average profit per trade. Overfitting (which some traders mistakenly call 'curve fitting', even though there is no curve being fitted) is always a concern but as Eckhardt pointed out, to not optimize at all is tantamount to underfitting.