More Price TA... potentially important

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Scataphagos, Dec 3, 2024.

  1. Nas Dec 3.PNG

    Notice the arrows @ 21250-ish. This is at least as of now... a "matched high" in the NDX.... resistance.

    This is a futures chart. The earlier down arrow is higher price because the "futures premium" was higher then than now. What's important is the "spot/cash" price of the index. (When there appears to be a discrepancy between the cash and futures charts, always defer to the cash chart... though market players will respond to either/both.)

    Suggest playing this zone as a pivot... long above, sell/short below.

    FWIW...

    GL
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2024
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  2. Aloha Scat,
    Thank you for this viewpoint. I've always wondered about their correlation
    I'm also interested in what others think about cash vs futures prices' importance
     
  3. poopy

    poopy

    So WTF didn’t you post a NDX cash chart?
     
  4. Some will trade the fututes. Some will trade the cash.

    Their could be distortion of up to 50-60 ES points, should the cash be testing support/resistance at the time of "futures contract rollover". The ES front-month future is trading about 14 pts premium at this time. It will be down to zero later this month.
     
    HawaiianIceberg likes this.
  5. maxinger

    maxinger

    When the price hits the resistance line/band or the invisible line/band or pivot,


    it will

    - continue to go up
    - reverse direction and then go down
    - hang around that line/band for many hours/days


    or various combinations of the above.

    FWIW

    GL
     
    p0box4 likes this.
  6. Update....

    Dec 5.PNG

    I'd mentioned "play the breakout as a pivot..."

    Well, it has broken out. Price TA says "chase breakouts"... and that means quickly. Did you listen?

    Not out of the woods yet on this... still can fail. Can also dip to "test the breakout level". If it does "backtest" and bounces, it's a technical buy. As for now, so far so good on the long.

    Price TA... "trade with you eyes"... the chart shows the net-net-net sum of all considerations of market players at any given point in time... that is, "what they are actually doing with their money". You want to be on the correct side of that.

    FWIW....

    GL
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2024
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  7. Dec 9.PNG I really hate to bring this up as a notion, considering the strong upside psycho of the market.

    However... technically the double arrows @21710-ish could be a "failed upside breakout" (the prior arrows @21680 are the "resistance") and if it holds is bearish at least short term... also might turn out to be something bigger... you just never know. All short term bearish considerations are negated if this high is taken out.

    FWIW... This is part of Price TA... you note the "potential/possibility", then watch to see what happens.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2024
  8. Dollardogs

    Dollardogs

    Does it make me a bad person how much I enjoy bloodlettings like today? Permabears of the world unite!
     
  9. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Not a bad person if you actually made money.
     
  10. tomorton

    tomorton

    I once found myself in a conflicted situation when I was trading company shares. The CFO of a listed company here in the UK was found to have committed sucide they day before the company's Annual Results were due to be released. He was son-in-law of the founder and CEO.

    During the day, as might be expected, the shares sold off massively. However, the Results came out next day and when the market opened price was just consolidating sideways. I bought within the first hour and sold at the Close and made a decent profit.

    I felt good I had bought into the company at a difficult time - but that was not really true - I only held a few hours. On top of that, my opportunity came at the expense of someone else's misfortune. The experience has stayed with me.
     
    #10     Dec 19, 2024
    Probability likes this.