This is going to be the next major problem for the economy, this is something that cannot be ignored. Steps should be taken at this very moment but of course they wont and it will end up just like the subprime mess less than 12 months ago. The historical Avg. sits at 4.86%, 3.89% is where we are now. My prediction is 4-4.25% in the 1st Qu of 2008, a jump past 5% by mid to late 2008. Maybe even higher. Look to short stocks involved in this area of the problem. Moody's: Credit Card Delinquencies Rise © 2007 The Associated Press TOOLS NEW YORK â Delinquency rates for credit card payments rose in the third quarter but were still well below historical standards, according to a report released Monday by Moody's Investors Service. Credit card delinquencies rose to 3.89 percent in the third quarter, from 3.61 percent during the year-ago period. It was the third straight quarter delinquency rates rose. But delinquencies in the quarter were still well below the long-term historical average of 4.86 percent. For September only, credit card delinquencies rose to 4.07 percent from 3.68 percent during the same month last year. Charge-off rates rose to 4.59 percent in the quarter, from 4.06 percent during the same period last year, according to Moody's. Charge-offs measure card balances written off as uncollectible as an annualized percent of total loans outstanding. September charge-offs totaled 4.58 percent. Payment rate fell slightly to 19.24 percent in the third quarter from 19.46 percent last year. Payment rate measures the proportion of outstanding debt repaid each month by borrowers.
And guess what.....if it gets to that point, we will see exactly the same spider web of problems....thanks to all of the credit card ABS that are out there. Can't predict the future, but it would be very sad if we look back some day and say the popping of the real estate bubble was just the tip of the iceberg of problems.
Look back at my many posts on housing, I think I got those predictions down perfectly....when all the talking heads were saying there was a bottom I kept showing you proof there wasn't a bottom in site. There still is no bottom and wont be until 2010, maybe even later than that. We are also entering a bear market along with a recession. Do you like those predictions or should I keep going. I will continue to write my opinions on here...do you actually think Credit Card Delinquencies wont rise??? Come on. Im telling you now its GOING TO HAPPEN. There is a tremendous Credit Bubble out there that even now continues to be ignored. Look at the news this morning from Fannie and Target. The news continues to get worse. Why the dow popped to 14k+ is beyond me, oh wait thats right, huge amount of money injections and lowering rates created the stock market to jump to records. Pathetic.
Keep going buddy, you're just another smart ass that thinks he knows so much and has it all figured out and has to let everybody know his predictions. You're the bearish twin of stock_trad3r. The same amount of trading acumen. And what "proof" were you showing? You were posting in July 2007 that "we're already in a recession" and "we're in a bear market" already. You're posting the same drivel ever since just like a broken clock. I asked you for proof why and how we are already in a recession back then and you never replied. Don't mistake your gut feeling for economic evidence. I am humble enough to say that I don't know what will happen to CC debt. I am not an expert on consumer debt issues and its economic implications and neither are you. Everybody has an option like they have an ahole but doesn't doesn't make for good predictions.
Not my fault you dont like to state your opinions on the market. If you dont like my opinions dont read them.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSN4AbFYIoCc&refer=home There is probably more current data than this, but as of may '08 people in the hole were still digging regards f9